Last major update issued on July 13, 2013 at 07:10 UTC.
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[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update July 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update July 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update July 1, 2013)]
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[POES auroral activity level since October
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[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 325 and 540 km/s. A weak solar wind shock was observed at 16:32 UTC at SOHO, likely the arrival of the CME observed on July 9.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 117.6 (increasing 7.6 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.8). Three hour interval K indices: 22222223 (planetary), 13322223 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B4 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11785 [S10W76] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 11787 [S14W49] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region 11791 [S14E47] rotated into view on July 10 and was numbered by USAF/SWPC 2 days later.
New region 11792 [N04E57] rotated into view on July 10 and got its NOAA number 2 days later.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2534 [N21W26] reemerged with penumbra spots.
S2540 [N17W03] was quiet and stable.
New region S2543 [S26E42] emerged with penumbra spots in an old plage area.
New region S2544 [N10E42] emerged with penumbra spots.
July 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH575) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on July 14-16.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on July 13 due to effects from the July 9 CME and quiet on July 14-15. On July 16 a corotating interaction region associated with CH575 could cause unsettled to major storm conditions. This disturbance could extend to July 19, gradually decreasing in intensity.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|S15W80||merged with AR 11787|
see AR S2536
|Total spot count:||37||54||27|
|Sunspot number:||87||134||97||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||52||63||36||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||52||47||53||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle peak)||96.7 (cycle peak)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
possible cycle 24 max
|2013.01||127.1||62.9||(58.7 projected, -0.9)||4.69|
|2013.02||104.3||38.0||(58.3 projected, -0.4)||6.11|
|2013.03||111.3||57.9||(57.9 projected, -0.4)||10.56|
|2013.04||124.8||72.4||(57.5 projected, -0.4)||5.40|
|2013.05||131.4||78.7||(57.6 projected, +0.1)||9.73|
|2013.06||110.1||52.5||(57.9 projected, +0.3)||12.60|
|2013.07||122.8 (1)||39.8 (2A) / 102.9 (2B) / 63.0 (2C)||(58.0 projected, +0.1)||(9.61)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.