Last major update issued on March 14, 2013 at 04:10 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 279 and 323 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 122.9 (increasing 22.8 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.5). Three hour interval K indices: 21100011 (planetary), 11221221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11687 [N07W64] was quiet and stable.
Region 11689 [S18W54] decayed quickly and was mostly quiet.
Region 11690 [N24W20] decayed and was quiet.
Region 11691 [N12W27] developed as the leading penumbra became large and
irregular.
Region 11692 [N09E24] was quiet and stable.
Region 11694 [N15E25] was quiet and stable.
Region 11695 [N09E46] was quiet and stable.
Region 11696 [N04E07] developed slowly and was mostly quiet despite minor
polarity intermixing.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2278 [S19W25] was quiet and stable.
S2287 [S25E70] was quiet and stable.
New region S2289 [N15W08] emerged with several spots and has minor
polarity intermixing.
New region S2290 [N17W40] has one penumbra spot.
March 11: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
and
STEREO imagery.
March 12: A weak partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery from the
combined ejecta of the C2 LDE near the central meridian and a filament eruption
in the northeast quadrant. The CME seems unlikely to become geoeffective.
March 13: A CME was observed off the east limbs early in the day
following a filament eruption near ARs 11696 and 11692 late on March 12. No
obvious Earth bound components were observed.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A small northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH559) was in an Earth facing position on March 11. A small coronal hole (CH560) in the southern hemisphere will likely be Earth facing on March 14-15.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 14-17. A few unsettled intervals are possible on March 18 due to effects from CH560.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11687 | 2013.03.02 2013.03.03 |
2 | N08W65 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
|
|||
| 11689 | 2013.03.03 2013.03.04 |
6 | 8 | 4 | S18W53 | 0030 | CSO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| 11690 | 2013.03.06 | 2 | 4 | 1 | N25W21 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| S2271 | 2013.03.06 | S18W17 | plage | ||||||||
| 11693 | 2013.03.06 2013.03.10 |
N18W74 | plage | ||||||||
| 11691 | 2013.03.07 2013.03.08 |
9 | 23 | 9 | N14W26 | 0070 | DAO | DKO |
 |
 |
area: 0250 location: N12W27 |
| S2278 | 2013.03.08 | 1 | S19W25 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S2279 | 2013.03.08 | S27W54 | plage | ||||||||
| 11692 | 2013.03.09 | 2 | 11 | 8 | N09E23 | 0190 | CSO | CHO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0330 |
| 11694 | 2013.03.09 2013.03.10 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N16E22 | 0020 | HSX | HRX |
 |
 |
location: N15E25 |
| S2284 | 2013.03.09 | N27W45 | plage | ||||||||
| 11695 | 2013.03.10 2013.03.11 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N09E44 | 0160 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0230 location: N09E46 |
| 11696 | 2013.03.11 | 12 | 27 | 15 | N05E04 | 0150 | DSI | ESI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0300 location: N04E07 |
| S2286 | 2013.03.11 | N09W17 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2287 | 2013.03.12 | 2 | 1 | S25E70 | 0009 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S2288 | 2013.03.12 | N13W12 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2289 | 2013.03.13 | 10 | 5 | N15W08 | 0050 | CAO |
 |
||||
| S2290 | 2013.03.13 | 1 | N17W40 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 33 | 93 | 45 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 103 | 213 | 135 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 63 | 134 | 86 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 62 | 75 | 74 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle max) | 96.7 (cycle max) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | 63.4 (+2.3) | 3.78 |
| 2012.01 | 132.5 | 58.3 | 65.5 (+2.1) | 7.15 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | 66.8 (-0.1) | 16.08 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | 61.7 (-2.9) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.7 (-1.2) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.1 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | (57.9 projected, -0.2) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | (57.0 projected, -0.9) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.4 | (56.1 projected, -0.9) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | (54.9 projected, -1.2) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | (53.6 projected, -1.3) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | (52.5 projected, -1.1) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 116.3 (1) | 38.2 (2A) / 91.1 (2B) / 48.3 (2C) | (51.5 projected, -1.0) | (7.39) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
