Last major update issued on November 3, 2013 at 05:00 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update November 2, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 2, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 2, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 2, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 3, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated November 2, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 2. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 285 and 424 km/s. A sudden increase in solar wind speed and temperature was observed at ACE near 20h. This was likely the arrival of the CME observed on October 30 after the X2 limb event.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 141.6 (increasing 35.1 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 118.7. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.5). Three hour interval K indices: 11010001 (planetary), 12111201 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 9 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 211) and 9 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 151) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11882 [S10W48] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11884 [S15W12] decayed slowly and has a weakening magnetic delta structure in a central northern penumbra. Further M class flaring is possible. C5+ flares: impulsive M1.6/1F at 22:21 UTC.
Region 11887 [N19E23] was quiet and stable.
Region 11888 [S13W60] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11889 [S19E22] emerged quickly and has polarity intermixing. C flares are possible.
New region 11890 [S11E78] rotated fully into view revealing a large, compact region. Major flares are possible.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2798 [S23W14] was mostly unchanged. C5+ flares: C8.2 at 04:46 UTC.
New region S2800 [S08E60] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2802 [S11E12] emerged with penumbra spots.
October 31-November 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or
November 2: A full halo CME was observed after 05h UTC, its source was backsided in a northern hemisphere active region (near the equator). Another impressive CME was observed later in the day after another backsided flare.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH592) will rotate into an Earth facing positon on October 31-November 3.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 3 due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled is likely on November 4-6 due to effects from CH592.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|11885||2013.10.26||12||S19W16||0160||CAO||part of AR 11884|
|Total spot count:||53||121||61|
|Sunspot number:||123||211||151||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||87||155||95||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||74||74||83||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle peak)||96.7 (cycle peak)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
likely cycle 24 max
|2013.05||131.4||78.7||(59.3 projected, +1.4)||9.73|
|2013.06||110.1||52.5||(59.7 projected, +0.4)||12.60|
|2013.07||115.5||57.0||(60.0 projected, +0.3)||9.47|
|2013.08||114.6||66.0||(60.3 projected, +0.3)||8.27|
|2013.09||102.6||36.9||(60.2 projected, -0.1)||5.23|
|2013.10||132.1||85.6||(58.7 projected, -1.5)||7.65|
|2013.10||143.6 (1)||7.3 (2A) / 114.0 (2B) / 81.0 (2C)||(56.6 projected, -2.1)||(3.4)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.