Last major update issued on November 9, 2013 at 05:00 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update November 2, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 2, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 2, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 2, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 3, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated November 2, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 8. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 349 and 438 km/s. A disturbance began early on November 9, likely related to the arrival of the CME observed on Nov.5.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 146.0 (increasing 18.1 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 121.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.5). Three hour interval K indices: 31110000 (planetary), 21211211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B6 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 13 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 301) and 9 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 171) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11887 [N19W60] was quiet and stable.
Region 11890 [S10W02] decayed significantly losing spots and penumbral area. There is still a persistent magnetic delta structure in a southeastern penumbra. Further M and X class flares are possible. C5+ flares: major impulsive X1.1/2B at 04:26 UTC. This event was associated with a full halo CME where most of the ejecta was observed off the southern limbs.
Region 11891 [S18W37] was active during the first half of the day, then began to decay. The magnetic delta disappeared with only minor polarity intermixing remaining. C5+ flares: C5.7 at 02:40, M2.3/1B at 09:29 UTC.
Region 11892 [S05E38] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11893 [S13E67] rotated into view on November 7 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 11894 [S07W32] emerged on November 7 and got its NOAA number the next day.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2796 [N07W35] was quiet and stable.
S2803 [N05W03] was quiet and stable.
S2816 [S22E18] was quiet and stable.
S2818 [N25W09] was quiet and stable.
New region S2819 [S27E51] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S2820 [N21E19] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2821 [N10E17] emerged with a penumbra spot.
November 6-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
November 8: A full halo CME was observed after the X1 event in AR 11890 early in the day. The CME could reach Earth on November 10.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH593) was in an Earth facing position on November 7-8.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on November 9 due to CME effects, isolated major storm intervals are possible. On November 10-11 effects from CH593 and the CME observed after the X1 event on Nov.8 could cause unsettled to major storm conditions.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||90||171||82|
|Sunspot number:||160||301||172||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||115||197||108||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||96||105||95||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle peak)||96.7 (cycle peak)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
likely cycle 24 max
|2013.05||131.4||78.7||(59.3 projected, +1.4)||9.73|
|2013.06||110.1||52.5||(59.7 projected, +0.4)||12.60|
|2013.07||115.5||57.0||(60.0 projected, +0.3)||9.47|
|2013.08||114.6||66.0||(60.3 projected, +0.3)||8.27|
|2013.09||102.6||36.9||(60.2 projected, -0.1)||5.23|
|2013.10||132.1||85.6||(58.7 projected, -1.5)||7.65|
|2013.11||146.8 (1)||37.1 (2A) / 139.0 (2B) / 88.5 (2C)||(56.6 projected, -2.1)||(4.9)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.