Last major update issued on November 10, 2013 at 07:00 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 9. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 364 and 628 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 148.1 (increasing 18.8 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 121.6. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 18 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 18.0). Three hour interval K indices: 34444211 (planetary), 24445321 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B8 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 12 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 225) and 9 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 140) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11887 [N19W72] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 11890 [S12W14] decayed further losing spots and penumbral
area. There are two magnetic delta structures in southeastern penumbrae.
The region produced a
major X1.1 flare at 05:14 UTC on November 10.
A CME was observed in STEREO-A imagery just after the flare.
Region 11891 [S18W50] decayed losing all umbrae.
Region 11892 [S07E29] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11893 [S13E56] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 11894 [S08W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2796 [N06W48] was quiet and stable.
S2803 [N07W15] was quiet and stable.
S2816 [S23E12] lost the leading penumbra spot.
S2819 [S27E40] was quiet and stable.
New region S2822 [S16E80] rotated into view with a single spot.
New region S2823 [N07W02] emerged with a penumbra spot.
An interesting active region will soon rotate into view at the southeast limb, it is currently causing an increase in the background xray flux.
November 7, 9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
and
STEREO imagery.
November 8: A full halo CME was observed after the X1 event in AR 11890
early in the day. The CME could reach Earth on November 10.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH593) was in an Earth facing position on November 7-8. A coronal hole (CH594) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on November 12-13.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on November 10-13 due to CME and coronal hole effects, isolated major storm intervals are possible.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11887 | 2013.10.29 2013.10.30 |
3 | 4 | 3 | N19W72 | 0030 | CRO | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| S2792 | 2013.10.30 | S10W58 | plage | ||||||||
| S2796 | 2013.10.31 | 4 | 2 | N06W48 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 11890 | 2013.11.01 2013.11.02 |
42 | 68 | 33 | S11W15 | 0660 | EKC | EHC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta |
| 11889 | 2013.11.02 | S19W72 | plage | ||||||||
| S2800 | 2013.11.02 | S08W32 | plage | ||||||||
| S2803 | 2013.11.03 | 5 | 1 | N07W15 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 11891 | 2013.11.05 2013.11.06 |
9 | 11 | 5 | S18W50 | 0080 | DAO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0035 |
| S2810 | 2013.11.05 | N01W59 | plage | ||||||||
| 11892 | 2013.11.06 | 1 | 1 | S05E24 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S07E29 | ||
| S2813 | 2013.11.06 | N18W25 | plage | ||||||||
| 11894 | 2013.11.07 2013.11.08 |
1 | S06W46 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 11893 | 2013.11.07 2013.11.08 |
1 | 3 | 3 | S12E54 | 0210 | HSX | DAO |
 |
 |
|
| S2816 | 2013.11.07 | 2 | S23E12 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S2818 | 2013.11.07 | N25W22 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2819 | 2013.11.08 | 4 | 1 | S27E40 | 0013 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S2820 | 2013.11.08 | N21E06 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2821 | 2013.11.08 | N10E04 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2822 | 2013.11.09 | 1 | 1 | S16E80 | 0120 | HSX |
 |
||||
| S2823 | 2013.11.09 | 1 | N07W02 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 55 | 105 | 50 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 95 | 225 | 140 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 88 | 125 | 70 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 57 | 79 | 77 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) likely cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.8 (-1.1) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.2 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.1) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | (59.3 projected, +1.4) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | (59.7 projected, +0.4) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 57.0 | (60.0 projected, +0.3) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 66.0 | (60.3 projected, +0.3) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 36.9 | (60.2 projected, -0.1) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 85.6 | (58.7 projected, -1.5) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 146.9 (1) | 40.2 (2A) / 134.1 (2B) / 88.3 (2C) | (56.6 projected, -2.1) | (6.4) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
