Last major update issued on November 20, 2013 at 06:00 UTC.
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[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update November 2, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 2, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 2, 2013)]
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[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 19. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 349 and 441 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 152.9 (increasing 0.2 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 125.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.6). Three hour interval K indices: 00010111 (planetary), 00002211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B6 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 9 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 183) and 8 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 108) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11893 [S13W77] produced the only interesting flare of the day and
could produce another major flare while rotating around the southwest limb. The region
still has a magnetic delta structure in the largest
C5+ flare: major X1.0 at 10:26 UTC. The flare was associated with a CME
where most of the ejected material was observed off the southwest limb.
Region 11895 [S17W49] decayed slowly.
Region 11896 [N10W44] was quiet and stable.
Region 11899 [N05W17] was quiet and stable. There's a small chance of a major flare.
Region 11900 [S22W77] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11903 [S11E49] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2837 [N13E45] was quiet and stable.
S2839 [S15E03] was quiet and stable.
S2843 [N08E18] was quiet and stable.
November 17-18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
November 19: A halo CME was observed after the X1 event in AR 11893. Most of the ejecta was observed off the southwest limb and the south pole. Faint extensions were observed elsewhere.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near an Earth facing position.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 20-22.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
includes AR 11897
|11897||2013.11.11||10||S18W41||0070||FSO||magnetically part of 11895|
|Total spot count:||43||93||28|
|Sunspot number:||113||183||108||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||88||131||66||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||68||64||59||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle peak)||96.7 (cycle peak)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
possibe cycle 24 max
|2013.05||131.4||78.7||(59.3 projected, +1.4)||9.73|
|2013.06||110.1||52.5||(59.7 projected, +0.4)||12.60|
|2013.07||115.5||57.0||(60.0 projected, +0.3)||9.47|
|2013.08||114.6||66.0||(60.3 projected, +0.3)||8.27|
|2013.09||102.6||36.9||(60.2 projected, -0.1)||5.23|
|2013.10||132.1||85.6||(58.7 projected, -1.5)||7.71|
|2013.11||157.9 (1)||97.8 (2A) / 154.4 (2B) / 92.1 (2C)||(56.6 projected, -2.1)||(6.6)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.