Last major update issued on October 17, 2013 at 05:45 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update October 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update October 9, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated October 10, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on October 16. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 446 and 593 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 128.1 (increasing 20.2 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 112.4. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.8). Three hour interval K indices: 43222323 (planetary), 42213322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 15 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 246) and 13 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 176) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11861 [S08W59] split off a spot in the
southern part of the largest trailing penumbra. The trailing negative polarity
spot are becoming sandwiched between the leading polarity area and the emerging
positive polarity of AR S2761. If this development continues, major flares will
Region 11864 [S23W40] decayed significantly losing spots and penumbral area. The region has lost the magnetic delta structure. C5+ flares: C8.9/1N at 14:32 UTC.
Region 11867 [N23W71] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11869 [N18E23] was mostly unchanged and quiet.
Region 11870 [S13W33] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11871 [N13E37] was quiet and stable.
Region 11872 [S17E56] was quiet and stable.
New region 11873 [N10E60] rotated into view on October 14 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2745 [N05W48] was quiet and stable.
S2753 [N17E34] was quiet and stable.
S2760 [S08W08] reemerged with a penumbra spot.
S2761 [S09W51] developed quickly. Due to the proximity to AR 11861 there is a significant chance of interaction and major flares.
New region S2762 [S12E37] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2763 [N07E82] rotated into view.
New region S2764 [N21E10] emerged with a penumbra spot.
October 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH591) in the northern hemisphere will rotate across the central meridian on October 17. CH591 may be too far to the north to cause geomagnetic effects.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 17-19. There's a chance of weak coronal hole effects from CH591 on October 20-21.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|11865||2013.10.08||3||S22W37||0050||DSO||part of AR 11864|
|Total spot count:||30||96||46|
|Sunspot number:||120||246||176||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||63||142||92||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||72||86||97||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle peak)||96.7 (cycle peak)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
likely cycle 24 max
|2013.04||124.8||72.4||(56.2 projected, -1.3)||5.40|
|2013.05||131.4||78.7||(55.8 projected, -0.4)||9.73|
|2013.06||110.1||52.5||(56.0 projected, +0.2)||12.60|
|2013.07||115.5||57.0||(56.1 projected, +0.1)||9.47|
|2013.08||114.6||66.0||(55.9 projected, -0.2)||8.27|
|2013.09||102.6||36.9||(55.4 projected, -0.5)||5.23|
|2013.10||117.0 (1)||50.0 (2A) / 96.8 (2B) / 56.4 (2C)||(53.9 projected, -1.5)||(11.12)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.