Last major update issued on April 6, 2014 at 06:10 UTC.
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[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on April 5. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 425 and 551 km/s. The April 2 CME was observed arriving at ACE near 10h UTC. There was no solar wind shock. The interplanetary magnetic field was initially fairly weak but became moderatery strong by the end of the day. The IMF has been persistently moderately strong and northwards since late on April 5 resulting in only minor geomagnetic effects. Should the IMF swing southwards there will be a possibility for minor storming.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 142.1 (decreasing 3.8 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 153.8. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.6). Three hour interval K indices: 11144323 (planetary), 11244333 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 283) and 12 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 203) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12021 [S13W56] decayed losing spots and
Region 12022 [N16W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12026 [S11E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12027 [N12E05] was mostly unchanged and quiet.
Region 12028 [S08E12] decayed slowly and was quiet.
Region 12029 [N17W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12030 [N10E18] deayed in the sense that spots and penumbral area was lost. However, a magnetic delta structure developed in the trailing spot section. The easternmost spots and the associated leading polarity spots are likely a separate group and will be split off if the magnetic delta disintegrates.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3277 [S27W62] reemerged with a penumbra spot.
S3288 [N04W19] regained the leader spot and was quiet.
S3297 [N06W59] was quiet and stable.
S3298 [N07E08] was quiet and stable.
S3302 [S22E17] was quiet and stable.
New region S3303 [N00E08] emerged with a penumbra spot.
April 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near potentially geoeffective positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on April 6 due to CME effects and quiet on April 7-8.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||102||153||83|
|Sunspot number:||172||283||203||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||103||99||112||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2013.10||132.1||131.2||85.6||(74.9 projected, +1.8)||7.71|
|2013.11||148.3||145.1||77.6||(74.9 projected, -0.0)||5.68|
|2013.12||147.7||143.1||90.3||(74.4 projected, -0.5)||4.68|
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||82.0||(74.3 projected, -0.1)||5.44|
|166.3||102.8 (cycle peak)||(73.7 projected, -0.6)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||92.2||(73.8 projected, +0.1)||4.88|
|2014.04||152.0 (1)||23.9 (2A) / 143.6 (2B) / 108.1 (2C)||(73.0 projected, -0.8)||(6.4)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.