Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on April 7, 2014 at 04:40 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update April 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update April 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update April 2, 2014)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated March 16, 2014]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on April 6. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 356 and 467 km/s, weakly under the influence of CME effects.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 140.9 (decreasing 10.6 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 153.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.4). Three hour interval K indices: 20000101 (planetary), 20002201 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 254) and 11 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 179) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12021 [S13W69] decayed quickly and quietly.
Region 12026 [S12W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12027 [N12W08] was mostly unchanged and quiet.
Region 12028 [S08W02] regained umbra on the trailing spots.
Region 12029 [N17W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12030 [N10E05] decayed further and still has a weak magnetic delta structure in the trailing spot section.
New region 12031 [N02W24] emerged inside the leading polarity field of AR S3288 and produced a C flare.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3297 [N06W74] was quiet and stable.
S3302 [S16E12] was quiet and stable.
New region S3304 [S13E32] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3305 [N11E54] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3306 [N08W77] emerged with penumbra spots.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 4-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near potentially geoeffective positions.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on April 7-9.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12022 2014.03.27
2014.03.28
      N17W58         plage
12021 2014.03.28 8 20 10 S13W68 0090 DSO CAI  
12026 2014.03.30 14 52 21 S10W17 0100 ESI EAI

location: S12W13

12027 2014.03.30
2014.03.31
7 11 4 N12W10 0150 CSO CSO area: 0230
S3288 2014.03.31       N04W22         see AR 12031
12028 2014.03.31
2014.04.01
3 6 5 S08W04 0010 BXO CRO location: S08W02

area: 0025

S3290 2014.03.31       S20W36           plage
12029 2014.04.01 2 3 3 N17W25 0040 HAX HAX  
12030 2014.04.01 18 16 11 N11E04 0130 DAO DAO beta-gamma-delta
S3295 2014.04.02       S11W43           plage
S3296 2014.04.02       S01W41           plage
S3297 2014.04.02   1 1 N06W74 0005   AXX  
S3298 2014.04.03       N07W05         plage
S3300 2014.04.03       S13E34           plage
S3301 2014.04.04       N14E40           plage
S3302 2014.04.04   4 3 S16E12 0016   AXX  
S3303 2014.04.05       N00W05         plage
12031 2014.04.06 5 14 8 N03W25 0040 CRO DRI   area: 0070
S3304 2014.04.06   3 2 S13E32 0014   BXO    
S3305 2014.04.06   2   N11E54 0004   BXO    
S3306 2014.04.06   2 1 N08W77 0007   BXO    
Total spot count: 57 134 69  
Sunspot number: 127 254 179  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 85 165 100  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 76 89 98 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.01 127.1 123.1 62.9 58.7 (-0.9) 4.69
2013.02 104.3 101.8 38.0 58.4 (-0.3) 6.11
2013.03 111.3 110.2 57.9 57.5 (-0.9) 10.56
2013.04 124.8 125.9 72.4 57.9 (+0.4) 5.40
2013.05 131.4 134.3 78.7 59.9 (+2.0) 9.73
2013.06 110.1 113.7 52.5 62.6 (+2.7) 12.60
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 (74.9 projected, +1.8) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 (74.9 projected, -0.0) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 (74.4 projected, -0.5) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 82.0 (74.3 projected, -0.1) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.8 (cycle peak) (73.7 projected, -0.6) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 92.2 (73.8 projected, +0.1) 4.88
2014.04 150.1 (1)   28.2 (2A) / 140.8 (2B) / 108.1 (2C) (73.0 projected, -0.8) (5.9)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.