Last major update issued on April 8, 2014 at 04:50 UTC.
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[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update April 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2014)]
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[POES auroral activity level October
2009 - December 2012]
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[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on April 7. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 334 and 431 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 139.9 (decreasing 24.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 152.6. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 11 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.1). Three hour interval K indices: 32213422 (planetary), 10214411 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 272) and 13 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 214) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12021 [S13W84] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12026 [S12W29] decayed slowly and produced a few low level C flares.
Region 12027 [N12W22] was mostly unchanged and quiet.
Region 12028 [S08W17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12029 [N17W38] was quiet and stable.
Region 12030 [N10W08] decayed slowly and quietly. There are still opposite polarity spots within a single trailing penumbral structure.
Region 12031 [N02W38] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3302 [S15W12] was quiet and stable.
S3304 [S13E22] was quiet and stable.
S3305 [N11E39] was quiet and stable.
New region S3307 [N12E80] rotated into view. C flares are possible.
New region S3308 [S02E37] emerged with several spots.
New region S3309 [S20E30] was observed with several penumbra spots.
April 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
An extension of a southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH610) will rotate across the central meridian on April 8 and could cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance on April 11. A small trans equatorial coronal hole could rotate into an Earth facing position on April 10.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on April 8-10.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||36||142||84|
|Sunspot number:||106||272||214||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||66||176||118||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||64||95||118||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2013.10||132.1||131.2||85.6||(74.9 projected, +1.8)||7.71|
|2013.11||148.3||145.1||77.6||(74.9 projected, -0.0)||5.68|
|2013.12||147.7||143.1||90.3||(74.4 projected, -0.5)||4.68|
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||82.0||(74.3 projected, -0.1)||5.44|
|166.3||102.8 (cycle peak)||(73.7 projected, -0.6)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||92.2||(73.8 projected, +0.1)||4.88|
|2014.04||148.7 (1)||31.7 (2A) / 135.9 (2B) / 108.9 (2C)||(73.0 projected, -0.8)||(6.6)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.