Last major update issued on August 10, 2014 at 03:10 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
daily)]
[Solar wind and
electron fluence charts (updated
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[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update August 1, 2014)] [Cycle
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[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and
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August 9, 2014)]
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2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
July 18, 2014]
[Presentations:
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)
/
4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was very quiet on August 9. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 308 and 359 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 113 (decreasing 13.8 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 133.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.8). Three hour interval K indices: 01110010 (planetary), 12301221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 160) and 5 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 84) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12130 [S09W82] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12132 [S19W61] decayed quickly and quietly.
Region 12134 [N09W24] decayed further and was quiet.
Region 12135 [N12E23] matured and began to decay.
New region 12137 [S18W08] was first observed with spots on August 5 with
SWPC numbering the region 4 days later when new leading polarity flux emerged.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3718 [S26E03] was quiet and stable.
S3720 [N12W06] was quiet and stable.
New region S3721 [N08E47] emerged with a penumbra spot.
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR |
| C2.7 | 09:01 | N12E34 | 12135 |
August 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October
2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH631) was in an Earth facing position on August 9-10.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on August 10-14. There is a chance of weak effects from CH631 on August 13.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12130 | 2014.07.28 2014.07.29 |
1 | 1 | S08W82 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
area: 0003 | |
| 12132 | 2014.07.30 2014.07.31 |
16 | 20 | 9 | S19W61 | 0180 | EAO | DAI |
 |
 |
location: S19W47 area: 0110 |
| S3693 | 2014.07.31 | S16W47 | |||||||||
| 12133 | 2014.08.01 2014.08.02 |
N18W37 | plage | ||||||||
| 12134 | 2014.08.01 2014.08.02 |
15 | 28 | 6 | N08W25 | 0010 | BXO | BXI |
 |
 |
|
| 12136 | 2014.08.03 2014.08.08 |
1 | N08W57 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
spotless | ||||
| S3703 | 2014.08.04 | N12W04 | plage | ||||||||
| S3704 | 2014.08.04 | N05W50 | plage | ||||||||
| 12137 | 2014.08.05 2014.08.09 |
3 | 10 | 5 | S19W09 | 0010 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 |
| 12135 | 2014.08.06 | 15 | 16 | 12 | N12E22 | 0240 | DSO | DSO |
 |
 |
area: 0410 |
| S3709 | 2014.08.06 | S15W46 | plage | ||||||||
| S3712 | 2014.08.06 | S06E03 | plage | ||||||||
| S3713 | 2014.08.06 | N18W51 | plage | ||||||||
| S3714 | 2014.08.07 | S19E16 | plage | ||||||||
| S3715 | 2014.08.07 | S19W14 | plage | ||||||||
| S3718 | 2014.08.08 | 2 | 1 | S26E03 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S3719 | 2014.08.08 | N06W06 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3720 | 2014.08.08 | 2 | N12W06 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S3721 | 2014.08.09 | 1 | N08E47 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 51 | 80 | 33 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 111 | 160 | 83 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 64 | 93 | 46 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 67 | 56 | 46 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 125.9 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 134.3 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 113.7 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 57.0 | 65.5 (+2.9) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 118.3 | 66.0 | 69.0 (+3.5) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | 73.1 (+4.1) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | 75.0 (+1.9) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | 75.4 (+0.4) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | 76.0 (+0.6) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 81.8 | 77.3 (+1.3) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.3 (cycle peak) | (78.1 projected, +0.8) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 149.9 | 148.5 | 91.9 | (79.0 projected, +0.9) | 4.88 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 84.7 | (78.1 projected, -0.9) | 7.88 |
| 2014.05 | 129.7 | 132.9 | 75.2 | (75.6 projected, -2.5) | 5.75 |
| 2014.06 | 122.0 | 125.8 | 71.0 | (72.9 projected, -2.7) | 6.72 |
| 2014.07 | 137.4 | 141.8 | 72.5 | (69.9 projected, -3.0) | 4.5 |
| 2014.08 | 140.3 (1) | 38.3 (2A) / 132.0 (2B) / 67.2 (2C) | (66.5 projected, -3.4) | (6.6) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
