Last major update issued on August 27, 2014 at 04:45 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update August 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update August 13, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update August 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update August 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update August 9, 2014)]
[POES auroral activity level October
2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated July 18, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was very quiet on August 26. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 275 and 330 km/s. Solar wind density increased significantly late in the day. While there was no solar wind shock, this was likely related to the arrival of a magnetic cloud (possibly CME related) early on August 27.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 128 (decreasing 23.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 131.6. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.8). Three hour interval K indices: 00011111 (planetary), 00022222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 195) and 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 124) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12146 [N08W56] lost penumbral area, however,
the region still has a significant magnetic delta structure and remains capable of producing a major flare.
Region 12147 [S10W41] was quiet and stable.
Region 12148 [N08W36] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12149 [N10E06] lost spots. There is still some polarity intermixing and a slight chance of a minor M class flare.
Region 12150 [S13E21] lost some penumbral area and was quiet.
Region 12151 [S07E34] was mostly quiet and unchanged.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S3765 [N13E54] emerged with a small spot.
New region S3766 [S11E57] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3767 [S16E83] rotated partly into view.
New region S3768 [N18E24] was observed with penumbra spots.
New region S3769 [S14E02] emerged with penumbra spots.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR|
August 24: A wide CME was observed after the M5 event in AR 12151.
August 25: A full halo CME was observed after the M2 flare in AR 12146. The CME will likely reach Earth on August 28.
August 26: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH632) will rotate into an Earth facing position on August 27-29.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on August 27. On August 28 a CME will likely arrive and could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions that day and on August 29. A high speed stream from CH632 could arrive on August 30 and cause quiet to active conditions.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||31||85||44|
|Sunspot number:||81||195||124||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||56||118||77||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||49||68||68||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||(78.1 projected, +0.8)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||91.9||(79.0 projected, +0.9)||4.88|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||84.7||(78.1 projected, -0.9)||7.88|
|2014.05||129.7||132.9||75.2||(75.6 projected, -2.5)||5.75|
|2014.06||122.0||125.8||71.0||(72.9 projected, -2.7)||6.72|
|2014.07||137.4||141.8||72.5||(69.9 projected, -3.0)||4.50|
|2014.08||125.2 (1)||93.7 (2A) / 111.8 (2B) / 80.4 (2C)||(66.5 projected, -3.4)||(5.7)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.