Last major update issued on December 30, 2014 at 05:45 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update December 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update December 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update December 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update December 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update December 3, 2014)]
[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]
[POES auroral activity level October
2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated December 27, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on December 29. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 440 and 630 km/s. Another disturbance arrived near 16h UTC and caused unsettled to minor storm conditions for the remainder of the day as well as an increase in solar wind speed.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 131.5 (decreasing 36.2 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 153.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 20 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 20.4). Three hour interval K indices: 23234535 (planetary), 12134434 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 219) and 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 159) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12246 [N17W28] was quiet and stable.
Region 12247 [S25W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12248 [S21W01] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12249 [S13W83] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12250 [N07W70] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12251 [S12E33] developed further and could produce C flares and maybe a minor M class flare.
Region 12252 [S20E52] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4103 [N01W12] was quiet and stable.
S4105 [S10W07] was quiet and stable.
New region S4113 [S06E75] rotated into view with a few spots.
New region S4114 [N17E51] was observed with penumbra spots.
New region S4115 [N05E13] emerged with a single spot.
New region S4116 [S03W67] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S4117 [S09E10] emerged with penumbra spots.
C2+ flares (GOES):
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Comment|
December 27-29: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on December 30 and quiet to unsettled on December 31 - January 1.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||43||79||39|
|Sunspot number:||113||219||159||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||71||113||73||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||68||77||87||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||78.4 (+1.1)||10.70|
(likely solar max)
|2014.06||122.0||125.8||71.0||(79.1 projected, -1.6)||6.72|
|2014.07||137.4||141.8||72.5||(77.5 projected, -1.6)||4.50|
|2014.08||124.7||127.9||74.7||(75.1 projected, -3.0)||7.71|
|2014.09||146.6||148.1||87.6||(71.9 projected, -3.2)||9.78|
|2014.10||153.4||152.9||60.6||(69.5 projected, -2.4)||8.96|
|2014.11||154.8||151.4||70.1||(67.7 projected, -1.8)||9.33|
|2014.12||157.1 (1)||113.8 (2A) / 121.7 (2B) / 91.3 (2C)||(66.0 projected, -1.7)||(10.8)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.