Last major update issued on February 10, 2014 at 05:35 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on February 9. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 349 and 483 km/s. A high speed stream from CH602 became the dominant solar wind source after noon.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 169.0 (increasing 25.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 150.0. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.9). Three hour interval K indices: 43313343 (planetary), 32313332 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 16 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 330) and 12 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 219) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11967 [S12W86] decayed slowly and produced a
few low level C flares.
Region 11968 [N11W83] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 11970 [S19W36] was quiet and stable.
Region 11971 [S12W17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11973 [N05E08] was quiet and stable.
Region 11974 [S11E20] gained a few spots and was quiet.
Region 11975 [S14W49] developed slowly and quietly. C flares are possible.
Region 11976 [S14E64] is a compact region which currently is fairly
simple structured magnetically.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3082 [N08W17] gained a trailing penumbra spot.
S3092 [S08W05] reemerged with a penumbra spot.
S3098 [S13E30] developed as new flux emerged in the trailing spot section.
The region has polarity intermixing, C and minor M flares are possible.
S3099 [S26W21] was quiet and stable.
S3102 [S21E14] was quiet and stable.
New region S3105 [S14E73] was split off from AR 11976.
New region S3106 [N18W00] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3107 [S21W08] emerged with penumbra spots.
The largest flare of the day was a long duration M1.1 event peaking at 16:17 UTC. Its source was a region at the southeast limb. The event was associated with a large partial halo CME.
February 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH602) was in an Earth facing position on February 5-6.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on February 10 due to effects form CH602. Quiet conditions are likely on February 11-12.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11967 | 2014.01.26 2014.01.27 |
9 | 3 | 2 | S13W89 | 0630 | EKC | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0750
|
| 11968 | 2014.01.27 | 16 | 4 | 3 | N11W85 | 0390 | EKC | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0140 |
| 11970 | 2014.02.01 2014.02.02 |
2 | S17W44 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S19W36 |
|||
| S3082 | 2014.02.01 | 3 | 1 | N08W17 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 11975 | 2014.02.02 2014.02.09 |
17 | 27 | 15 | S15W50 | 0080 | DAC | DAC |
 |
 |
location: S14W49 area: 0280 |
| 11972 | 2014.02.02 2014.02.05 |
S12W67 |
 |
plage |
|||||||
| 11971 | 2014.02.03 2014.02.04 |
12 | 28 | 13 | S12W15 | 0070 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| S3090 | 2014.02.03 | N18W31 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3092 | 2014.02.04 | 1 | S08W05 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| 11973 | 2014.02.04 2014.02.05 |
13 | 25 | 15 | N06E10 | 0130 | DSO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0200 |
| 11974 | 2014.02.04 2014.02.05 |
34 | 23 | 13 | S12E23 | 0220 | ESI | CSI |
 |
 |
location: S11E20 area: 0200 see AR S3098 |
| S3096 | 2014.02.05 | N15E14 | plage | ||||||||
| S3098 | 2014.02.06 | 34 | 23 | S13E30 | 0140 | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma split off from AR 11974 |
||
| S3099 | 2014.02.07 | 1 | S26W21 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 11976 | 2014.02.07 2014.02.08 |
9 | 13 | 7 | S15E63 | 0240 | EAC | DKC |
 |
|
area: 0530 location: S14E64 |
| S3101 | 2014.02.07 | S23W51 | plage | ||||||||
| S3102 | 2014.02.08 | 6 | 3 | S21E14 | 0016 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S3105 | 2014.02.09 | 4 | 3 | S14E73 | 0210 | CAO |
 |
||||
| S3106 | 2014.02.09 | 3 | N18W00 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S3107 | 2014.02.09 | 3 | 1 | S21W08 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 110 | 170 | 99 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 180 | 330 | 219 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 155 | 223 | 152 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 108 | 116 | 120 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2011.11 | 153.5 | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 | |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) | 8.81 | |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 118.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 105.0 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 123.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 101.8 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 110.2 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 125.9 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 134.3 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 113.7 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 57.0 | 65.5 (+2.9) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 118.3 | 66.0 | (67.8 projected, +2.3) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | (69.6 projected, +1.8) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | (69.3 projected, -0.3) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | (67.5 projected, -1.8) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | (66.7 projected, -0.8) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 (cycle peak) |
152.4 | 82.0 | (66.9 projected, +0.2) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 182.9 (1) | 61.6 (2A) / 191.7 (2B) / 104.8 (2C) | (65.9 projected, -1.0) | (7.9) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
