Last major update issued on July 1, 2014 at 05:00 UTC.
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[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 30. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 303 and 364 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 140.5 (increasing 33.5 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 134.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.0). Three hour interval K indices: 31101111 (planetary), 42111432 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 288) and 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 158) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12096 [N10W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12097 [N12W30] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12100 [N10E12] gained a few spots and was mostly quiet.
Region 12102 [N14E46] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12103 [S12E25] reemerged with penumbra spots.
Region 12104 [S10E53] gained spots and remains a complex and compact region capable of producing a major flare.
Region 12105 [S06E12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12106 [N15E62] developed slowly and produced a few low level C flares.
Region 12107 [S20E62] was mostly unchanged and has a magnetic delta structure in the southwestern penumbra. An M class flare is possible.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S3597 [N26W05] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3598 [S08E80] rotated into view with a penumbra spot.
New region S3599 [N06E44] was observed with penumbra spots.
New region S3600 [S31W06] emerged with a penumbra spot.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR|
June 28-30: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A poorly defined coronal hole was in an Earth facing position on June 30.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on July 1-3.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||44||158||68|
|Sunspot number:||124||288||158||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||92||198||108||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||74||101||87||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||82.0||(76.9 projected, +0.9)||5.44|
|166.3||102.8 (cycle peak)||(76.7 projected, -0.2)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||92.2||(77.1 projected, +0.4)||4.88|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||84.7||(76.2 projected, -0.9)||7.88|
|2014.05||129.7||132.9||75.2||(73.7 projected, -2.5)||5.75|
|2014.06||122.0||125.8||71.0||(71.0 projected, -2.7)||6.7|
|2014.07||(1)||0.0 (2A/2B) / 79.7 (2C)||(68.3 projected, -2.7)||()|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.