Last major update issued on March 16, 2014 at 07:00 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update March 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update March 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
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[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated March 16, 2014]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 357 and 415 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 139.0 (decreasing 14.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 153.4. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.3). Three hour interval K indices: 21110111 (planetary), 11211211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 11 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 242) and 10 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 161) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11998 [S12W63] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 12002 [S18W30] was mostly quiet and decayed slowly.
Region 12003 [N06W77] was the most active region on the visible disk. A minor M class flare is possible as the region around the northwest limb. C5+ flares: C5.0 at 09:40 and C6.1 at 17:15 UTC.
Region 12004 [S09W02] developed slowly as new flux emerged.
Region 12005 [N11E35] was quiet and stable.
Region 12006 [N11W76] developed slowly and could produce a minor M class flare.
New region 12008 [S11E73] rotated into view on March 14 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3215 [N12E12] reemerged with several spots.
New region S3225 [S15E63] emerged as a reversed polarity region.
New region S3226 [S08E65] rotated into view on March 14 and was initially considered to be part of AR 12008.
New region S3227 [S22E27] has a few penumbra spots in an old plage area.
March 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 16-18.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
real location: S11W76
SWPC has adopted the location of AR S3211
|1||N10E49||0040||HAX||trailing spots of AR 12005|
|Total spot count:||61||132||61|
|Sunspot number:||141||242||161||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||96||171||100||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||85||85||89||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2013.09||102.6||103.7||36.9||(72.8 projected, +3.8)||5.23|
|2013.10||132.1||131.2||85.6||(73.8 projected, +1.0)||7.71|
|2013.11||148.3||145.1||77.6||(72.7 projected, -1.1)||5.68|
|2013.12||147.7||143.1||90.3||(71.6 projected, -1.1)||4.68|
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||82.0||(71.6 projected, 0.0)||5.44|
|166.3||102.8 (cycle peak)||(70.9 projected, -0.7)||10.70|
|2014.03||151.5 (1)||72.2 (2A) / 149.1 (2B) / 115.2 (2C)||(71.0 projected, +0.1)||(4.7)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.