Last major update issued on March 19, 2014 at 05:30 UTC.
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March 16, 2014]
[Presentation
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SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 18. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 274 and 339 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 138.3 (decreasing 19.3 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 152.9. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.5). Three hour interval K indices: 11211111 (planetary), 12312321 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 297) and 14 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 218) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12002 [S17W70] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12004 [S11W42] developed slowly and
quietly.
Region 12005 [N12W07] decayed in the trailing spot section and lost all
umbrae there. The leader spot was mostly unchanged.
Region 12008 [S12E32] was quiet and stable.
Region 12009 [N11W32] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12010 [S15E54] developed further. The region has polarity
intermixing and a magnetic delta structure could easily form. A minor M class
flare is possible. Several C flares were observed.
New region 12011 [S07W23] emerged with several spots.
New region 12012 [S09E62] rotated into view on March 17 and was numbered
the next day by SWPC.
New region 12013 [N14E69] rotated into view on March 17 with SWPC
numbering the region the following day.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3225 [S14E26] regained penumbra spots.
S3226 [S09E20] developed slowly and quietly.
S3233 [S22E37] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3236 [S27E58] was quiet and stable.
New region S3240 [S14E85] rotated into view.
New region S3241 [N15E40] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3242 [N21E08] emerged with a penumbra spot.
March 16-18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH608) could rotate into an Earth facing position on March 19-20.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 19-21. Effects from CH608 could cause a weak disturbance on March 22-23.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12002 | 2014.03.07 2014.03.08 |
10 | 12 | 6 | S18W72 | 0130 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: S17W70 area: 0090 |
| 12004 | 2014.03.09 2014.03.10 |
8 | 24 | 11 | S10W45 | 0040 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S11W42 area: 0120 |
| S3208 | 2014.03.10 | N09W47 | plage | ||||||||
| 12005 | 2014.03.11 2014.03.12 |
3 | 22 | 13 | N13W09 | 0250 | CHO | CKO | images/AR_12005_20140318_2345.png | images/AR_12005_20140317_2345.png |
area: 0380 location: N12W07 |
| 12007 | 2014.03.13 2014.03.14 |
1 | N11E09 | 0010 | AXX | trailing spots of AR 12005 | |||||
| 12009 | 2014.03.13 2014.03.16 |
3 | 2 | N14W30 | 0012 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N11W32 | |
| S3216 | 2014.03.13 | S01W43 | plage | ||||||||
| S3217 | 2014.03.13 | S26W47 | plage | ||||||||
| 12008 | 2014.03.14 2014.03.15 |
1 | 8 | 5 | S11E31 | 0010 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0022 |
| S3225 | 2014.03.15 | 3 | 1 | S14E26 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S3226 | 2014.03.15 | 7 | 6 | S09E20 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S3227 | 2014.03.15 | S22W00 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3229 | 2014.03.16 | S08W02 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 12010 | 2014.03.16 2014.03.17 |
6 | 29 | 18 | S15E54 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0100 |
| S3231 | 2014.03.16 | S19E13 | plage | ||||||||
| S3232 | 2014.03.16 | S24E09 | plage | ||||||||
| S3233 | 2014.03.17 | 3 | S22E37 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 12012 | 2014.03.17 2014.03.18 |
2 | 2 | 2 | S09E61 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
area: 0020 |
| 12013 | 2014.03.17 2014.03.18 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N13E70 | 0030 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0060 |
| S3236 | 2014.03.17 | 2 | 1 | S27E58 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S3237 | 2014.03.17 | S23E27 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 12011 | 2014.03.18 | 3 | 16 | 8 | S07W22 | 0010 | BXO | DAI |
 |
area: 0090 | |
| S3240 | 2014.03.18 | 1 | 1 | S14E85 | 0070 | HAX |
 |
||||
| S3241 | 2014.03.18 | 3 | 3 | N15E40 | 0013 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S3242 | 2014.03.18 | 1 | N21E08 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 35 | 137 | 78 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 125 | 297 | 218 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 68 | 184 | 125 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 75 | 104 | 120 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 118.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 105.0 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 123.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 101.8 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 110.2 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 125.9 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 134.3 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 113.7 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 57.0 | 65.5 (+2.9) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 118.3 | 66.0 | 69.0 (+3.5) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | (72.8 projected, +3.8) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | (73.8 projected, +1.0) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | (72.7 projected, -1.1) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | (71.6 projected, -1.1) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 82.0 | (71.6 projected, 0.0) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.8 (cycle peak) | (70.9 projected, -0.7) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 149.1 (1) | 84.2 (2A) / 145.1 (2B) / 116.9 (2C) | (71.0 projected, +0.1) | (4.4) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
