Last major update issued on May 13, 2014 at 05:20 UTC.
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2009 - December 2012]
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[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on May 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 362 and 468 km/s under the influence of a low to moderately high speed stream from CH616.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 162.9 (increasing 1.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 149.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.9). Three hour interval K indices: 22222122 (planetary), 33332321 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 289) and 14 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 235) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12053 [N09W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12055 [N11W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12056 [N05W08] decayed and simplified magnetically. A minor M class flare is still possible.
Region 12057 [N14E01] was quiet and stable.
Region 12058 [S12E16] decayed significantly and was quiet.
Region 12059 [S01W07] decayed losing all umbrae.
Region 12060 [S16E23] developed slowly and became more organized with less polarity intermixing. The region has M class flare potential.
Region 12061 [S24E55] was quiet and stable.
Region 12062 [S07W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3405 [N08W03] was quiet and stable.
S3411 [S13W10] was quiet and stable.
S3415 [N01E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S3420 [S09E23] emerged with two spots.
May 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH617) was in an Earth facing position on May 12-13.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on May 13-14 and quiet to active on May 15-16 due to effects from CH617.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||74||149||95|
|Sunspot number:||164||289||235||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||119||190||136||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||98||101||129||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2013.11||148.3||145.1||77.6||(75.6 projected, +0.6)||5.68|
|2013.12||147.7||143.1||90.3||(76.6 projected, +1.0)||4.68|
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||82.0||(77.6 projected, +1.0)||5.44|
|166.3||102.8 (cycle peak)||(77.4 projected, -0.2)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||92.2||(77.9 projected, +0.5)||4.88|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||84.7||(77.0 projected, -0.9)||7.88|
|2014.05||144.1 (1)||49.0 (2A) / 126.6 (2B) / 103.6 (2C)||(74.4 projected, -2.6)||(7.0)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.