Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 18, 2014 at 05:10 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 1, 2014)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated October 11, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 17. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 433 and 515 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 167.5 (decreasing 31.5 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 145.6 - the highest since May 25, 2014). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.9). Three hour interval K indices: 21123232 (planetary), 21124332 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 189) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 115) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12208 [S13W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12209 [S15E27] was mostly unchanged and quiet. There is still a magnetic delta in the northeastern part of the largest penumbra.
Region 12213 [S09W01] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12214 [S13E47] was quiet and stable.
New region 12215 [N09E52] rotated into view on November 15 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S4000 [S07E03] emerged near the northwestern part of AR 12209 and decayed slowly late in the day.

C2+ flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Comment
C6.5 09:07 behind NW limb 12205  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 15-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH643) was in a geoeffective position on November 15-17.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 18-20 due to a high speed stream from CH643.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12207 2014.11.07
2014.11.08
      S09W55           plage
S3973 2014.11.07       N18W55           plage
12208 2014.11.08
2014.11.09
6 13 5 S10W40 0010 BXO BXO location: S13W43
12210 2014.11.10
2014.11.13
      N05W27         plage
S3983 2014.11.11       S17W52           plage
12209 2014.11.12 22 87 35 S13E18 0990 FKC FKC beta-gamma-delta

location: S15E27

area: 1820

S3985 2014.11.12       S07W00           plage
12212 2014.11.12
2014.11.14
      N16W26           plage
S3988 2014.11.13       N11W53           plage
12213 2014.11.14
2014.11.15
12 6 3 S10W02 0030 CRO CRO  
S3990 2014.11.14       S11W24           plage
S3991 2014.11.14       N10W47           plage
S3992 2014.11.14       S17W21           plage
S3993 2014.11.15       N24W16           plage
12214 2014.11.15
2014.11.16
4 12 7 S13E47 0010 BXO DRI area: 0050
12215 2014.11.15
2014.11.17
1 5 3 N09E49 0010 AXX BXO location: N09E52
S3996 2014.11.15       N26W32           plage
S3997 2014.11.16       N22E05         plage
S3998 2014.11.16       N02E36         plage
S3999 2014.11.16       N03W25         plage
S4000 2014.11.17   6 2 S07E03 0012   BXO    
Total spot count: 45 129 55  
Sunspot number: 95 189 115  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 58 145 71  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 57 66 63 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 81.9 (+1.1)
(likely solar max)
7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (80.3 projected, -1.6) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 (78.7 projected, -1.6) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 (77.1 projected, -1.6) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 (74.7 projected, -3.0) 7.71
2014.09 146.6 148.1 87.6 (71.5 projected, -3.2) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 60.6 (69.0 projected, -2.5) 8.96
2014.11 141.8 (1)   52.7 (2A) / 92.9 (2B) / 88.3 (2C) (67.3 projected, -1.7) (9.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.