Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 23, 2014 at 05:55 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 1, 2014)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated November 22, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 22. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 349 and 477 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 166.6 (decreasing 50.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 147.3 - the highest since May 21, 2014). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.9). Three hour interval K indices: 32221123 (planetary), 22322223 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 210) and 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 139) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12209 [S15W38] was mostly unchanged, however, flare activity increased and a major flare is possible due to the magnetic delta in the eastern part of the largest penumbra.
Region 12214 [S13W20] was quiet and stable.
Region 12216 [S13E41] developed a magnetic delta structure in the northeastern part of the leading penumbra. An M class flare is possible.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4008 [N15E31] was quiet and stable.
New region S4015 [S19E80] rotated partly into view. A minor M class flare is possible.
New region S4016 [N12E47] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S4017 [N05E17] emerged with a few spots.
New region S4018 [N15W51] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S4019 [S20W50] was split off from AR 12209.

C2+ flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Comment
C2.3 00:21      
C8.1/1B 01:01 S12W26 12209  
C2.4 03:41   12209  
C6.5/1N 06:03 S14W25 12209  
C3.2 06:14   12209  
C2.1 13:31 S14W33 12209  
C3.1/1N 17:13 S13W33 12209  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 20-22: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mosty quiet on November 23-25.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12209 2014.11.12 23 55 23 S15W43 0950 FKO FKC beta-gamma-delta

location: S14W38

area: 1300

12213 2014.11.14
2014.11.15
      S08W70           plage
12214 2014.11.15
2014.11.16
2 12 5 S12W19 0010 AXX BXO  
12215 2014.11.15
2014.11.17
      N09W17         plage
S3998 2014.11.16       N02W29           plage
S4002 2014.11.18       N04W38           plage
S4003 2014.11.18       N17W54           plage
12216 2014.11.19
2014.11.20
9 33 17 S13E41 0630 DKC DKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0920

S4008 2014.11.19   2 1 N15E31 0005   BXO  
S4010 2014.11.20       N17W31           plage
S4012 2014.11.21       S03E19         plage
S4013 2014.11.21       N01W20         plage
S4015 2014.11.22   2 2 S19E80 0140   HAX    
S4016 2014.11.22   2   N12E47 0005   BXO    
S4017 2014.11.22   5 4 N05E17 0013   HRX    
S4018 2014.11.22   2 2 N15W52 0007   BXO    
S4019 2014.11.22   7 5 S20W50 0050   DRO   split off from AR 12209
Total spot count: 34 120 59  
Sunspot number: 64 210 139  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 54 151 90  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 38 74 76 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 81.9 (+1.1)
(likely solar max)
7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (80.3 projected, -1.6) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 (78.7 projected, -1.6) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 (77.1 projected, -1.6) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 (74.7 projected, -3.0) 7.71
2014.09 146.6 148.1 87.6 (71.5 projected, -3.2) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 60.6 (69.0 projected, -2.5) 8.96
2014.11 147.5 (1)   65.3 (2A) / 89.0 (2B) / 83.3 (2C) (67.3 projected, -1.7) (10.4)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.