Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on April 14, 2015 at 04:55 UT

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update April 1, 2015)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 1, 2015) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2015)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update April 1, 2015)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update April 1, 2015)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated April 10, 2015]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on April 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 273 and 427 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 141.3 (increasing 27.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 126.1. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.1). Three hour interval K indices: 32211211 (planetary), 33322321 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 249) and 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 191) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12320 [S13W73] was unstable and produced several low level C flares as it approached the southwest limb.
Region 12321 [N13E43] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. There is weak polarity intermixing in the central part.
Region 12322 [N14E15] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12323 [S16W60] developed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4362 [S04E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
S4367 [N08E49] pwas quiet and stable.
S4368 [N17E51] decayed slowly and was quiet.
S4369 [S03W13] developed slowly and was quiet.
New region S4371 [N19E75] rotated into view as a compact region with M class flare potential.
New region S4372 [S18E40] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S4373 [N04E83] rotated into view.
New region S4374 [N17E34] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S4375 [N10W35] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S4376 [N12W23] emerged with penumbra spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Recorded by Comment
C2.1 02:43 N12E57 12321 GOES15  
C4.3 04:09 S14W73 12320 GOES15  
C4.7 08:26 N15E26 12322 GOES15  
C2.3 11:35 S16W74 12320 GOES15  
C2.9 23:23   12321 GOES15 attributed to AR 12320 by SWPC

Flare activity according to SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

An extension (CH663) of the southern polar coronal hole could be associated with a co-rotating interaction region. The extension rotated across the central meridian on April 11-12.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on April 14-16.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12320 2015.04.02
2015.04.04
6 6 5 S14W78 0070 DAO CRO

location: S13W73

12318 2015.04.03       N08W66           location: N07W62
S4345 2015.04.03       N12W54            
12323 2015.04.06
2015.04.11
4 11 8 S16W62 0020 BXO DRO area: 0060
S4355 2015.04.07       N01W54            
S4358 2015.04.07       S17E02            
S4359 2015.04.07       N11W15            
S4360 2015.04.08       S10W40            
S4361 2015.04.09       S22W21            
S4362 2015.04.10   3 1 S04E03 0010   AXX  
12322 2015.04.10
2015.04.11
4 12 6 N14E12 0030 DAO DRO

location: N14E15

S4364 2015.04.10       N10E20            
12321 2015.04.10
2015.04.11
14 31 19 N13E40 0620 EKC DAC beta-gamma

area: 0540

location: N13E43

S4367 2015.04.11   9 5 N08E49 0240   CAO  
S4368 2015.04.11   7 3 N17E51 0070   CAO  
S4369 2015.04.12   5 2 S03W13 0020   DRO  
S4370 2015.04.12       S19W27          
S4371 2015.04.13   16 6 N19E75 0500   DKC    
S4372 2015.04.13   2   S18E40 0003   AXX    
S4373 2015.04.13   1 1 N04E83 0270   HKX    
S4374 2015.04.13   2 2 N17E34 0007   BXO    
S4375 2015.04.13   1 1 N10E35 0003   AXX    
S4376 2015.04.13   3 2 N12W23 0010   BXO    
Total spot count: 28 109 61  
Sunspot number: 68 249 191  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 48 156 108  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 41 87 105 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 81.9 (+1.1)
(likely solar max)
7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 80.5 (-1.4) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 79.7 (-0.8) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 78.6 (-1.1) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 75.6 (-3.0) 7.71
2014.09 146.6 148.1 87.6 70.9 (-4.7) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 60.6 (67.3 projected, -3.6) 8.96
2014.11 154.8 151.4 70.1 (64.7 projected, -2.6) 9.33
2014.12 158.7 153.8 78.0 (62.4 projected, -2.3) 11.24
2015.01 141.9 137.3 67.0 (60.2 projected, -2.2) 9.46
2015.02 129.1 126.0 44.8 (58.4 projected, -1.8) 9.92
2015.03 125.9 124.6 38.4 (56.1 projected, -2.3) 16.14
2015.04 (120.7)   23.2 (2A) / 53.6 (2B) / 68.7 (2C) (53.4 projected, -2.7) (9.0)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.