Last major update issued on April 16, 2015 at 04:15 UT
[Solar and geomagnetic
data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update April 1, 2015)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 1, 2015) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2015)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update April 1, 2015)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update April 1, 2015)]
[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]
[POES auroral activity
level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated April 10, 2015]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on April 15 under the influence of effects from a co-rotating interaction region and an extension of the southern polar coronal hole. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 309 and 695 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 154.7 (increasing 45.4 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 126.6. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 25 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 25.0). Three hour interval K indices: 23255353 (planetary), 22335443 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 243) and 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 165) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12321 [N11E16] developed a weak magnetic
delta in a central section penumbra. Other spots decreased in size and the
region is decaying slowly. A minor M class flare is possible.
Region 12322 [N15W10] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12323 [S17W82] decayed quickly as it rotated to the southwest limb.
Region 12324 [N19E48] was mostly unchanged and quiet.
Region 12325 [N04E57] has a weak magnetic delta in the trailing spot section. A minor M class flare is possible.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S4367 [N08E23] was quiet and has polarity intermixing.
S4368 [N15E26] developed slowly and was quiet.
S4369 [S03W42] was quiet and stable.
S4377 [N11W08] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S4379 [N22W02] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S4380 [S19E42] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S4381 [N21E19] was observed with penumbra spots.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Recorded by||Comment|
April 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH664) will likely rotate across the central meridian on April 16-17.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on April 16 and quiet to unsettled on April 17-18.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||35||123||65|
|Sunspot number:||85||243||165||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||65||164||106||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||51||85||91||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||78.4 (+1.1)||10.70|
(likely solar max)
|2014.10||153.4||152.9||60.6||(67.3 projected, -3.6)||8.96|
|2014.11||154.8||151.4||70.1||(64.7 projected, -2.6)||9.33|
|2014.12||158.7||153.8||78.0||(62.4 projected, -2.3)||11.24|
|2015.01||141.9||137.3||67.0||(60.2 projected, -2.2)||9.46|
|2015.02||129.1||126.0||44.8||(58.4 projected, -1.8)||9.92|
|2015.03||125.9||124.6||38.4||(56.1 projected, -2.3)||16.14|
|2015.04||(124.7)||29.0 (2A) / 58.6 (2B) / 71.1 (2C)||(53.4 projected, -2.7)||(10.2)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.