Last major update issued on January 3, 2015 at 07:20 UTC.
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2009 - December 2012]
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 2. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 351 and 464 km/s. A disturbance, probably coronal hole related, began late in the day.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 145.8 (increasing 17.1 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 152.9. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.6). Three hour interval K indices: 31222234 (planetary), 31223323 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 266) and 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 184) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12246 [N18W80] was quiet and stable.
Region 12248 [S19W53] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12251 [S14W20] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12252 [S20W00] was quiet and stable.
Region 12253 [S07E23] gained penumbral area and spots. Although the region has been fairly quiet, there is a chance of an M class flare due to the magnetic delta in the leading penumbra.
Region 12254 [S22W19] was quiet and stable.
Region 12255 [S14E65] was quiet and stable.
New region 12256 [S08W47] emerged on December 31 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4114 [N18E01] was quiet and stable.
S4123 [S16E18] was quiet and stable.
New region S4124 [N04E49] was observed with penumbra spots.
New region S4125 [S17W08] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S4126 [S05W44] emerged with penumbra spots.
C2+ flares (GOES):
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Comment|
December 31 - January 2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH648) was in an Earth facing position on January 2. A corotating interaction region could be associated with the large southern hemisphere coronal hole. In that case the coronal hole related to the CIR was in an Earth facing position on January 1-2.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 3-7 due to coronal hole efects.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
real location: S25W72
|Total spot count:||33||136||74|
|Sunspot number:||113||266||184||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||71||177||115||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||68||93||101||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||78.4 (+1.1)||10.70|
(likely solar max)
|2014.07||137.4||141.8||72.5||(78.6 projected, -1.1)||4.50|
|2014.08||124.7||127.9||74.7||(76.2 projected, -2.4)||7.71|
|2014.09||146.6||148.1||87.6||(73.0 projected, -3.2)||9.78|
|2014.10||153.4||152.9||60.6||(70.5 projected, -2.5)||8.96|
|2014.11||154.8||151.4||70.1||(68.8 projected, -1.7)||9.33|
|2014.12||158.7||153.8||78.0||(67.7 projected, -1.1)||10.8|
|2015.01||141.2 (1)||6.9 (2A) / 107.0 (2B) / 88.5 (2C)||(66.5 projected, -1.2)||(7.9)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.