Last major update issued on January 7, 2015 at 04:15 UTC.
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[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update January 1, 2015)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update January 1, 2015) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update January 1, 2015)]
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[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]
[POES auroral activity level October
2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated December 27, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 6. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 417 and 536 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH648.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 141.9 (decreasing 7.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 153.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.8). Three hour interval K indices: 23342331 (planetary), 22443332 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 169) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 118) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12251 [S15W76] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12252 [S20W52] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12253 [S06W31] decayed slowly producing C flares.
Region 12255 [S13E11] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12257 [N06E12] was first observed with spots on January 3 and was numbered by SWPC 3 days later when new flux emerged.
New region 12258 [N13E73] rotated into view.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S4132 [S19E84] rotated partly into view. M class flaring may be possible.
C2+ flares (GOES):
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Comment|
January 4-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH649) will be in an Earth facing position on January 6-8.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on January 7-8 and quiet to active on January 9-11 due to effects from CH649.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||42||99||58|
|Sunspot number:||102||169||118||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||67||126||85||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||61||59||65||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||78.4 (+1.1)||10.70|
(likely solar max)
|2014.07||137.4||141.8||72.5||(78.6 projected, -1.1)||4.50|
|2014.08||124.7||127.9||74.7||(76.2 projected, -2.4)||7.71|
|2014.09||146.6||148.1||87.6||(73.0 projected, -3.2)||9.78|
|2014.10||153.4||152.9||60.6||(70.5 projected, -2.5)||8.96|
|2014.11||154.8||151.4||70.1||(68.8 projected, -1.7)||9.33|
|2014.12||158.7||153.8||78.0||(67.7 projected, -1.1)||11.24|
|2015.01||144.1 (1)||21.0 (2A) / 108.7 (2B) / 87.9 (2C)||(66.5 projected, -1.2)||(12.2)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.