|Charts (* = updated daily)||Data and archive|
|Solar wind (*)||Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)|
|Electron fluence (*)||Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (May 1, 2015)|
|Solar cycle||Solar cycles 23-24 (May 1, 2015)||Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)|
|Cycle 24 progress (May 1, 2015)||Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (*)|
|Solar cycles 1-20||POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012|
|Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (May 1, 2015)||3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013|
|Comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (May 1, 2015)||4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014|
|Solar polar fields vs solar cycles (April 10, 2015)|
The geomagnetic field was quiet on May 5. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 344 and 426 km/s. A solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 00:50 UT on May 6, the arrival of the CME observed on May 2/3.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 127.8 (increasing 21.8 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 125.4. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.9). Three hour interval K indices: 11122112 (planetary), *****214 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 249) and 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 148) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12335 [S16E10] still has a weak magnetic
delta centrally and could produce a minor M class flare.
Region 12336 [N13W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12337 [S17E29] was quiet and stable.
Region 12338 [N04E30] developed further and could produce C flares.
New region 12339 [N12E75] rotated fully into view revealing a complex and compact region with major flare potential.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S4426 [S12W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
S4439 [N12E49] decayed slowly and quietly.
S4442 [S28E22] was quiet and stable.
New region S4444 [S02E48] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S4445 [S04E22] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S4446 [S05W67] emerged with a penumbra spot.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Recorded by||Comment|
|C5.1||04:03||N09E77||12339||GOES15||attributed to AR 12338 by SWPC|
|C2.5||17:07||12335||SDO/EVE||C1.9/2N @ GOES15|
May 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH666) was in a potentially geoeffective position on May 2. CH666 has decayed and may not be capable of creating a geomagnetic disturbance. A recurrent extension (CH667) of the southern polar coronal hole could rotate across the central meridian on May 8-9.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance of minor storm intervals on May 6 due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled is likely on May 7-8.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image.
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
|Total spot count:||49||139||78|
|Sunspot number:||99||249||148||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||79||165||104||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||59||87||81||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||78.4 (+1.1)||10.70|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||84.7||81.9 (+1.1) (solar max)||7.88|
|2014.11||154.8||151.4||70.1||(64.9 projected, -2.4)||9.33|
|2014.12||158.7||153.8||78.0||(62.6 projected, -2.3)||11.24|
|2015.01||141.9||137.3||67.0||(60.4 projected, -2.2)||9.46|
|2015.02||129.1||126.0||44.8||(58.7 projected, -1.7)||9.92|
|2015.03||125.9||124.6||38.4||(56.3 projected, -2.4)||16.14|
|2015.04||128.8||129.7||54.4||(53.7 projected, -2.6)||10.3|
|2015.05||(113.6)||9.3 (2A) / 57.8 (2B) / 79.0 (2C)||(51.5 projected, -2.2)||(5.5)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.