The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 14 under the decreasing influence of effects from CH667 and an associated co-rotating interaction region. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 550 and 768 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 145.1 (decreasing 4.5 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 127.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.5). Three hour interval K indices: 22212123 (planetary), 33422323 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 308) and 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 233) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12339 [N11W44] lost spots and penumbral
area. A weak magnetic delta developed centrally. The region could still produce an M class flare.
Region 12340 [S08W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12341 [S20W17] was quiet and stable.
Region 12342 [N17W08] produced a couple of C flares, some penumbral
growth was observed.
Region 12343 [N10W15] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12344 [S09E16] was quiet and stable
Region 12345 [N15W30] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12346 [S08E28] was quiet and stable.
Region 12347 [N04E28] was quiet and stable.
New region 12348 [S09E60] rotated into view on May 12 and was numbered by
SWPC 2 days later.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S4459 [N10E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
S4466 [N13E40] decayed slowly and quietly.
S4467 [N23E48] reemerged with a penumbra spot.
S4469 [N19E07] was quiet and stable.
S4470 [N20W15] was quiet and stable.
New region S4471 [N19E22] was observed with a penumbra spot.
New region S4472 [S04W71] emerged with penumbra spots.
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.5 | 07:31 | N07W46 | 12339 | GOES15 | |
| C2.8 | 14:08 | N18E02 | 12342 | GOES15 | |
| C2.1/1F | 16:31 | N13W41 | 12339 | GOES15 | |
| C4.8 | 17:53 | 12339 | GOES15 | ||
| C2.6 | 00:11 (May 15) | N18W04 | 12342 | GOES15 |
May 12, 14: No obviously
Earth directed CMEs were observed.
May 13: A faint full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after the
C9 event in AR 12345.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH668) will rotate into an Earth facing position on May 14-15.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 15-16. Late on May 16 and on May 17 there is a chance a CME could arrive and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution)
Compare to the previous day's image.
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12339 | 2015.05.03 2015.05.04 |
21 | 54 | 38 | N11W45 | 0400 | FAC | FAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta |
| 12340 | 2015.05.06 2015.05.07 |
3 | 1 | S08W27 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
|
||
| 12341 | 2015.05.06 2015.05.07 |
1 | 3 | 2 | S20W18 | 0080 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0130 |
| 12345 | 2015.05.07 2015.05.11 |
4 | N16W30 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 12342 | 2015.05.08 2015.05.09 |
6 | 8 | 5 | N17W06 | 0060 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0130 |
| 12343 | 2015.05.09 2015.05.10 |
3 | 7 | 3 | N09W13 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| 12344 | 2015.05.10 | 2 | 13 | 6 | S10E21 | 0040 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0110 location: S09E16 |
| 12346 | 2015.05.10 2015.05.11 |
7 | 19 | 13 | S08E28 | 0050 | CSO | CAI |
 |
 |
area: 0120 |
| 12347 | 2015.05.10 2015.05.11 |
1 | 3 | 2 | N05E26 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| S4459 | 2015.05.11 | 2 | 1 | N10E03 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S4463 | 2015.05.12 | N07W03 | |||||||||
| 12348 | 2015.05.12 2015.05.14 |
5 | 5 | 4 | S09E60 | 0100 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0160 |
| S4466 | 2015.05.12 | 4 | 1 | N13E40 | 0020 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S4467 | 2015.05.12 | 1 | N23E48 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S4468 | 2015.05.12 | N13E29 | |||||||||
| S4469 | 2015.05.13 | 3 | 2 | N19E07 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S4470 | 2015.05.13 | 6 | 3 | N20W15 | 0013 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S4471 | 2015.05.14 | 1 | 1 | N19E22 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S4472 | 2015.05.14 | 2 | 1 | S04W71 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 46 | 138 | 83 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 126 | 308 | 233 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 76 | 171 | 116 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 76 | 108 | 128 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | 76.0 (+0.6) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 81.8 | 77.3 (+1.3) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.3 (cycle peak) | 78.4 (+1.1) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 149.9 | 148.5 | 91.9 | 80.8 (+2.4) | 4.88 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 84.7 | 81.9 (+1.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2014.05 | 129.7 | 132.9 | 75.2 | 80.5 (-1.4) | 5.75 |
| 2014.06 | 122.0 | 125.8 | 71.0 | 79.7 (-0.8) | 6.72 |
| 2014.07 | 137.4 | 141.8 | 72.5 | 78.5 (-1.2) | 4.50 |
| 2014.08 | 124.7 | 127.9 | 74.7 | 75.5 (-3.0) | 7.71 |
| 2014.09 | 146.6 | 148.1 | 87.6 | 70.8 (-4.7) | 9.78 |
| 2014.10 | 153.4 | 152.9 | 60.6 | 67.3 (-3.5) | 8.96 |
| 2014.11 | 154.8 | 151.4 | 70.1 | (64.9 projected, -2.4) | 9.33 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 78.0 | (62.6 projected, -2.3) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 67.0 | (60.4 projected, -2.2) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 44.8 | (58.7 projected, -1.7) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 38.4 | (56.3 projected, -2.4) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 54.4 | (53.7 projected, -2.6) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | (138.8) | 50.1 (2A) / 110.9 (2B) / 89.4 (2C) | (51.5 projected, -2.2) | (10.7) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC)
sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO
international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current
month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
