The geomagnetic field was unnsettled to active on November 9 under the influence of effects from CH698. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 438 and 667 km/s, increasing towards the end of the day as the southernmost parts of CH698 became geoeffective.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 107.6 (increasing 12.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 104.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 21 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 21.0). Three hour interval K indices: 43433344 (planetary), 44553334 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 158) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 99) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12443 [N06W81] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 12448 [N06E13] gained spots and was quiet.
Region 12449 [S12E34] decayed significantly after the M flare with the
largest penumbra fragmenting into smaller spots.
Region 12450 [S23E34] was quiet and stable.
Region 12451 [N04W00] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4860 [N19W60] reemerged with a few spots.
New region S4881 [S08E49] emerged with tiny spots early in the day
and decayed slowly after noon.
New region S4882 [S22E09] was observed with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
| M3.9/2B (LDE) | 13:12 | S11E41 | 12449 | GOES15 | partial halo CME, minor proton event |
November 7-8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available LASCO imagery.
November 9: At least a partial halo CME was observed after the M4 LDE in
AR 12449. The CME could reach Earth on November 11 or early on November 12.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
The southernmost parts of a large northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH698) were in an Earth facing position on November 5-8. A small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH699) will rotate across the central meridian on November 9-10.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 10-11 due to effects from CH698, minor storm intervals are possible. The November 9 CME could arrive on November 11 or 12 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Potential effects from CH699 on November 12-13 may not be observable due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution)
Compare to the previous day's image.
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12443 | 2015.10.28 2015.10.29 |
3 | 2 | 2 | N05W82 | 0130 | CSO | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0240 location: N06W81 |
| S4860 | 2015.10.29 | 4 | 2 | N19W60 | 0013 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 12447 | 2015.11.03 | N04W60 | |||||||||
| 12451 | 2015.11.03 2015.11.07 |
2 | 5 | 2 | N03W02 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| 12448 | 2015.11.03 2015.11.04 |
9 | 24 | 13 | N06E12 | 0080 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0150 |
| 12449 | 2015.11.06 | 13 | 31 | 17 | S11E32 | 0140 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S12E34 area: 0200 |
| S4877 | 2015.11.06 | N07W54 | |||||||||
| 12450 | 2015.11.06 2015.11.07 |
6 | 3 | S23E36 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S23E34 |
||
| S4879 | 2015.11.07 | N30W21 | |||||||||
| S4880 | 2015.11.08 | N17W32 |
 |
||||||||
| S4881 | 2015.11.09 | 1 | S08E49 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S4882 | 2015.11.09 | 5 | S22E09 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 27 | 78 | 39 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 67 | 158 | 99 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 42 | 93 | 54 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 74 | 87 | 84 | k * (sunspot number) As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) |
|||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) (4) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (cycle peak) | 110.5 (+1.2) | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2014.09 | 146.6 | 148.1 | 130.0 | 101.9 (-6.4) | 9.78 |
| 2014.10 | 153.4 | 152.9 | 90.0 | 97.3 (-4.6) | 8.96 |
| 2014.11 | 154.8 | 151.4 | 103.6 | 94.7 (-2.6) | 9.33 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 112.9 | 92.2 (-2.5) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 93.0 | 89.3 (-2.9) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 66.7 | 86.1 (-3.2) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 54.5 | 82.2 (-3.9) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 75.3 | 78.9 (-3.3) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | 120.0 | 122.6 | 88.8 | (76.3 projected, -2.6) | 8.29 |
| 2015.06 | 122.3 | 126.1 | 66.5 | (72.6 projected, -3.7) | 13.15 |
| 2015.07 | 107.0 | 110.8 | 66.4 | (68.9 projected, -3.7) | 8.83 |
| 2015.08 | 105.4 | 108.0 | 64.6 | (67.7 projected, -1.2) | 14.58 |
| 2015.09 | 101.7 | 102.7 | 78.1 | (68.0 projected, +0.3) | 15.78 |
| 2015.10 | 104.1 | 103.3 | 61.7 | (67.1 projected, -0.9) | 14.02 |
| 2015.11 | (114.8) | 24.9 (2A) / 83.0 (2B) / 89.2 (2C) | (65.0 projected, -2.1) | (18.5) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B)
Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day
average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
