The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on October 1. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 273 and 430 km/s. A co-rotating interaction region associated with CH692 arrived at ACE near 11h UT while a low speed stream from CH692 itself became the dominant solar wind source after 23h UT.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 119.7 (increasing 29.8 over the last solar rotation, the measurement may have been flare enhanced by a C1.7 event in AR 12422 peaking at 20:00 UT). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 107.0. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 11 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.4). Three hour interval K indices: 11113433 (planetary), 01313432 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 149) and 4 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 87) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12420 [N11W70] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12422 [S20W66] decayed in the leading spot section while the
central section has a complex magnetic layout. Another major flare is possible.
The region was the source of an impulsive major M5.5 flare at 00:13 UT on
October 2.
Region 12427 [N17W04] increased penumbral area in the leading spot
section and lost area in the trailing spots.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4781 [S17W03] regained a leader spot.
S4791 [N09E28] was quiet and stable.
New region S4793 [S20E16] was observed with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.9 | 02:07 | S20W64 | 12422 | SDO/EVE | |
| C6.3/1F | 02:15 | S20W59 | 12422 | GOES15 | |
| C3.5 | 08:35 | S23W65 | 12422 | GOES13 | |
| C7.7/1F (LDE) | 09:34 | S24W62 | 12422 | GOES13 | |
| M4.5/1F | 13:10 | S23W64 | 12422 | GOES15 | |
| C3.7 | 21:24 | S19W65 | 12422 | GOES15 |
September 29 - October 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. The west limb CME observed on September 30 may have had a small Earth directed component.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH692) was in an Earth facing position on September 29. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH694) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on October 4-6.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active intervals on October 2 due to effects from CH692 and quiet on October 3-6. There is a minor chance a component of the CME observed on September 30 could reach Earth on October 3 and cause unsettled to active conditions. Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on October 7-9 due to effects from CH694.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution)
Compare to the previous day's image.
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12420 | 2015.09.19 2015.09.20 |
3 | 3 | 3 | N10W70 | 0020 | CRO | ERO |
 |
 |
|
| 12422 | 2015.09.22 | 18 | 32 | 20 | S17W69 | 0750 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S20W66 |
| 12425 | 2015.09.23 2015.09.25 |
S05W87 | |||||||||
| 12426 | 2015.09.24 2015.09.25 |
N16W34 |
 |
||||||||
| S4781 | 2015.09.26 | 2 | S17W03 | 0003 | BXO | images/AR_S4781_20151001_2345.png |
 |
||||
| 12427 | 2015.09.27 | 22 | 48 | 23 | N18W04 | 0180 | DSO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0300 |
| S4786 | 2015.09.27 | S10W71 | |||||||||
| S4787 | 2015.09.28 | S18W48 | |||||||||
| S4791 | 2015.09.30 | 2 | N09E28 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S4792 | 2015.09.30 | N16E44 |
 |
||||||||
| S4793 | 2015.10.01 | 2 | 1 | S17W03 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 43 | 89 | 47 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 73 | 149 | 87 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 61 | 107 | 65 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 80 | 82 | 74 | k * (sunspot number) As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) |
|||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) (4) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (cycle peak) | 110.5 (+1.2) | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2014.05 | 129.7 | 132.9 | 112.5 | 115.0 (-1.4) | 5.75 |
| 2014.06 | 122.0 | 125.8 | 102.9 | 114.1 (-0.9) | 6.72 |
| 2014.07 | 137.4 | 141.8 | 100.2 | 112.6 (-1.5) | 4.50 |
| 2014.08 | 124.7 | 127.9 | 106.9 | 108.3 (-4.3) | 7.71 |
| 2014.09 | 146.6 | 148.1 | 130.0 | 101.9 (-6.4) | 9.78 |
| 2014.10 | 153.4 | 152.9 | 90.0 | 97.3 (-4.6) | 8.96 |
| 2014.11 | 154.8 | 151.4 | 103.6 | 94.7 (-2.6) | 9.33 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 112.9 | 92.2 (-2.5) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 93.0 | 89.3 (-2.9) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 66.7 | 86.1 (-3.2) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 54.5 | 82.2 (-3.9) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 75.3 | (78.7 projected, -3.5) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | 120.0 | 122.6 | 88.8 | (75.9 projected, -2.8) | 8.29 |
| 2015.06 | 122.3 | 126.1 | 66.5 | (72.2 projected, -3.7) | 13.15 |
| 2015.07 | 107.0 | 110.8 | 66.4 | (68.5 projected, -3.7) | 8.83 |
| 2015.08 | 105.4 | 108.0 | 64.6 | (67.3 projected, -1.2) | 14.58 |
| 2015.09 | 101.7 | 102.7 | 78.1 | (67.6 projected, +0.3) | 15.7 |
| 2015.10 | (119.7) | 2.4 (2A) / 73 (2B) / 83.5 (2C) | (66.7 projected, -0.9) | (11.4) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B)
Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day
average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
