|Charts (* = updated daily)||Data and archive|
|Solar wind (*)||Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)|
|Electron fluence (*)||Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (October 1, 2015)|
|Solar cycle||Solar cycles 23-24 (October 1, 2015)||Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)|
|Cycle 24 progress (October 1, 2015)||Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (*)|
|Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015)||POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012|
|Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (October 1, 2015)||3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013|
|Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (October 1, 2015)||4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014|
|Solar polar fields vs solar cycles (October 13, 2015)|
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 16. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 346 and 440 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 109.1 (increasing 3.4 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 102.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.0). Three hour interval K indices: 33111001 (planetary), 33312311 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 127) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 88) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12431 [S18W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12432 [S20W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12434 [S10E34] gained spots and lost the magnetic delta. Although flare activity decreased with the loss of the delta, further M class flaring is possible.
New region 12435 [S15E73] rotated into view early in the day.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S4823 [N09E82] rotated partly into view and may be capable of M class flaring.
New region S4824 [N03E09] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S4825 [N03W32] emerged with a tiny spot.
An active region at or just behind the southeast limb has produced several C flares early on October 17.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Recorded by||Comment|
|C3.8||13:07||S4823||GOES15||incorrectly attributed to AR 12434 by SWPC|
October 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
An extensive recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH695) was in a geoeffective position on October 8-14. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH696) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on October 17-18.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 17-19. Quiet to active is possible on October 20-21 due to effects from CH696.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image.
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
|4||10||4||S21W23||0010||BXO||CRO||location : S20W25|
|Total spot count:||28||57||28|
|Sunspot number:||68||127||88||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||43||80||51||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||75||70||75||k * (sunspot number)
As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number (4)||Average
|166.3||146.1 (cycle peak)||110.5 (+1.2)||10.70|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||112.5||116.4 (+2.1) (solar max)||7.88|
|2015.04||128.8||129.7||75.3||(78.7 projected, -3.5)||10.73|
|2015.05||120.0||122.6||88.8||(75.9 projected, -2.8)||8.29|
|2015.06||122.3||126.1||66.5||(72.2 projected, -3.7)||13.15|
|2015.07||107.0||110.8||66.4||(68.5 projected, -3.7)||8.83|
|2015.08||105.4||108.0||64.6||(67.3 projected, -1.2)||14.58|
|2015.09||101.7||102.7||78.1||(67.6 projected, +0.3)||15.78|
|2015.10||(92.8)||20.5 (2A) / 39.6 (2B) / 76.8 (2C)||(66.7 projected, -0.9)||(19.4)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.