Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on August 5, 2016 at 03:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (July 2, 2016)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-24 (August 1, 2016) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24 progress (August 1, 2016) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012
  Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (August 1, 2016) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (August 1, 2016) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (July 9, 2016)  

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 4 under the influence of effects related to CH753. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 479 and 613 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 76.3 (decreasing 10.8 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 88.9. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.9). Three hour interval K indices: 33333332 (planetary), 33543432 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A9 level.

New region 12571 [N13E22] emerged with several spots.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S5384 [N15W31] emerged on August 2 to the northwest of AR 12570 and developed further on August 4. SWPC failed to observe that this is a different region and has moved AR 12570 to the position of AR S5384. The region could produce C flares.
New region S5386 [S09E12] was observed with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location AR Recorded by Comment
           

Flare activity (SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy)

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 2-4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A large recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH753) was in an Earth facing position on July 30 - August 3. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH754) was Earth facing on August 3-4.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsetted on August 5 due to effects from CH753 while a disturbance associated with CH754 could cause quiet to active conditions on August 6-7.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
S5380 2016.07.27       S17W49            
12570 2016.07.28 3     N15W32 0010 BXO       actual location: N10W28
SWPC data is for new AR S5384
S5384 2016.08.02   8 6 N14W31 0040   CRO  
12571 2016.08.04 4 10 6 N14E22 0010 BXO DRO   area: 0030
S5386 2016.08.04   3   S09E12 0006   BXO    
Total spot count: 7 21 12  
Sunspot number: 27 51 32  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 7 27 18  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 30 28 26 k * (sunspot number)
As of May 7, 2016: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.80 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO) (4)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (cycle peak) 110.5 (+1.2) 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) 7.88
2015.05 120.0 122.6 88.8 76.1 (-2.8) 8.29
2015.06 122.3 126.1 66.5 72.1 (-4.0) 13.15
2015.07 107.0 110.8 65.8 68.3 (-3.8) 8.83
2015.08 105.4 108.0 64.4 66.4 (-1.9) 14.58
2015.09 101.7 102.7 78.6 65.9 (-0.5) 15.78
2015.10 104.1 103.3 63.6 64.3 (-1.6) 14.02
2015.11 109.3 106.9 62.2 61.3 (-3.0) 12.09
2015.12 113.1 109.5 58.0 57.8 (-3.5) 14.29
2016.01 103.4 100.1 57.0 54.5 (-3.3) 9.4
2016.02 103.6 101.0 56.4 (51.8 projected, -2.7) 9.9
2016.03 91.5 90.6 54.1 (48.2 projected, -3.6) 10.58
2016.04 93.3 94.0 38.0 (44.8 projected, -3.4) 9.03
2016.05 93.0 95.3 52.1 (42.1 projected, -2.7) 11.65
2016.06 81.9 84.5 20.9 (39.5 projected, -2.6) 8.44
2016.07 86.0 88.9 32.5 (36.8 projected, -2.7) 8.9
2016.08 (74.5)   1.6 (2A / 12.8 (2B) / 40.2 (2C) (34.0 projected, -2.8) (15.1)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.