The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 5. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 342 and 463 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 119.7 (increasing 12.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 104.8. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.1). Three hour interval K indices: 33222232 (planetary), 34332322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 273) and 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 175) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12490 [S20W83] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12491 [N02E06] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12492 [N13E25] lost some penumbral area while gaining a few small
spots.
Region 12493 [S05W57] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12494 [S11W02] matured and lost the magnetic delta. C flares are
possible and there is a minor chance of a small M class event.
New region 12495 [S08W48] emerged on February 3 and was numbered by SPWC
2 days later when the region began to decay.
New region 12496 [N08E59] rotated into view on February 4 and got its
NOAA number the next day as the region decayed.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S5077 [S10W19] was quiet and stable.
S5080 [N05E30] developed slightly and was quiet.
S5082 [N13E57] gained spots and was quiet.
New region S5084 [N13E74] rotated into view.
New region S5085 [N13E02] was observed with tiny spots.
New region S5086 [S08E62] was observed with a tiny spot.
New region S5087 [S05W07] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S5088 [N24E01] emerged with a few spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.0 | 00:56 | 12494 | GOES15 | ||
| C2.9 | 07:22 | S12E06 | 12494 | GOES15 |
February 3-4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available LASCO imagery.
February 5: A filament eruption to the west of AR 12494 was observed
beginning near 20h UT. A slow moving partial halo CME was observed late on
February 5 and early on February 6 in LASCO imagery. It is not yet certain if
the CME was associated with the filament eruption, however, it appears to be the
most likely cause. In that case there is a slight chance there was an Earth
directed component with this CME.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH713) rotated across the central meridian on February 4-5.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 6. Late on February 7 and on February 8 effects from CH713 could cause unsettled to active conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12490 |
2016.01.24 2016.01.25 |
5 | 6 | 3 | S20W81 | 0080 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
|
| S5061 | 2016.01.29 | N12W28 | images/AR_S5061_20160203_2345.png | ||||||||
| S5062 | 2016.01.29 | N10W83 | |||||||||
| S5064 | 2016.01.29 | N06W42 | |||||||||
| 12491 |
2016.01.30 2016.01.31 |
2 | 12 | 2 | N02E03 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 |
| S5068 | 2016.01.30 | S21W58 | |||||||||
| S5069 | 2016.01.31 | S19W39 | |||||||||
| 12492 |
2016.02.01 2016.02.02 |
8 | 32 | 11 | N14E23 | 0050 | DSO | DRI |
 |
 |
|
| S5071 | 2016.02.02 | S09W17 | |||||||||
| 12493 |
2016.02.02 2016.02.03 |
5 | 8 | 3 | S05W58 | 0010 | DRO | DRO |
 |
 |
|
| 12494 |
2016.02.03 2016.02.04 |
16 | 23 | 10 | S12W04 | 0230 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0320 |
| S5076 | 2016.02.03 | N16W06 |
 |
||||||||
| S5077 | 2016.02.03 | 3 | S10W19 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 12495 |
2016.02.03 2016.02.05 |
6 | 7 | 4 | S07W46 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 |
| S5080 | 2016.02.03 | 8 | 2 | N05E30 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 12496 |
2016.02.04 2016.02.05 |
5 | 1 | N09E56 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N08E59 | |
| S5082 | 2016.02.04 | 9 | 4 | N13E57 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S5083 | 2016.02.04 | S23W36 |
 |
||||||||
| S5084 | 2016.02.05 | 3 | 1 | N13E74 | 0030 | CAO |
 |
||||
| S5085 | 2016.02.05 | 2 | 1 | N13E02 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S5086 | 2016.02.05 | 1 | S08E62 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S5087 | 2016.02.05 | 1 | 1 | S05W07 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S5088 | 2016.02.05 | 3 | 2 | N24E01 | 0010 | CRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 42 | 123 | 45 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 112 | 273 | 175 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 60 | 150 | 72 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 123 | 150 | 149 | k * (sunspot number) As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) |
|||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) (4) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (cycle peak) | 110.5 (+1.2) | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 112.9 | 92.2 (-2.5) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 93.0 | 89.3 (-2.9) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 66.7 | 86.1 (-3.2) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 54.5 | 82.2 (-3.9) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 75.3 | 78.8 (-3.4) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | 120.0 | 122.6 | 88.8 | 76.0 (-2.8) | 8.29 |
| 2015.06 | 122.3 | 126.1 | 66.5 | 72.0 (-4.0) | 13.15 |
| 2015.07 | 107.0 | 110.8 | 66.4 | 68.2 (-3.8) | 8.83 |
| 2015.08 | 105.4 | 108.0 | 64.6 | (66.1 projected, -2.1) | 14.58 |
| 2015.09 | 101.7 | 102.7 | 78.1 | (66.1 projected, +0.0) | 15.78 |
| 2015.10 | 104.1 | 103.3 | 61.7 | (65.7 projected, -0.4) | 14.02 |
| 2015.11 | 109.3 | 106.9 | 63.2 | (63.6 projected, -2.1) | 12.09 |
| 2015.12 | 113.1 | 109.5 | 57.7 | (61.9 projected, -1.7) | 14.29 |
| 2016.01 | 103.4 | 100.2 | 56.6 | (60.2 projected, -1.7) | 10.0 |
| 2016.02 | 111.5 | 13.1 (2A) / 76.0 (2B) / 80.3 (2C) | (57.8 projected, -2.4) | (7.6) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B)
Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day
average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
