Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on February 9, 2016 at 04:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (February 1, 2016)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-24 (February 1, 2016) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24 progress (February 1, 2016) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012
  Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (February 1, 2016) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (February 1, 2016) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (January 29, 2016)  

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on February 8 under the influence of effects from CH713 for the first half of the day. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 331 and 452 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 115.2 (increasing 9.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 105.1. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.5). Three hour interval K indices: 54421111 (planetary), 43422111 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 263) and 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 173) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12491 [N01W35] was quiet and stable.
Region 12492 [N13W14] decayed slowly and quietly losing umbra on all spots.
Region 12494 [S11W41] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12495 [S08W84] rotated partly out of view.
Region 12496 [N08E18] was quiet and stable.
Region 12497 [N12E37] developed further and was quiet.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S5080 [N05W10] was quiet and stable.
S5082 [N13E16] was quiet and stable.
S5086 [S12E18] was quiet and stable.
S5091 [N13W21] developed significantly during the latter half of the day as new flux emerged. Unfortunately SWPC has failed to make an obvious split between this group and AR 12492. The region produced the sole C class flare of the day.
New region S5093 [N19E70] rotated into view.
New region S5094 [N18E37] was observed with tiny spots.
New region S5095 [S10W18] was observed with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location AR Recorded by Comment
           

Flare activity (SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy)

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 6-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
February 8: An extensive filament eruption centered near AR S5082 was observed beginning near 20:20 UT. The eruptive parts extended from the central meridian to near the northwest limb. A CME was observed after this event. Although the major parts of the ejecta was headed well outside the Sun-Earth line, there is a chance that a component may be Earth directed.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH714) rotated across the central meridian on February 8.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 9-10. There's a slight chance of CME effects on February 9. On February 11 effects from CH714 could cause unsettled and active intervals. On February 11 and 12 there is a slight chance of CME effects caused by the February 8 CME.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12491 2016.01.30
2016.01.31
  2   N01W40 0004   AXX location: N01W35
12492 2016.02.01
2016.02.02
7 13 7 N14W19 0020 CRO BXO location: N13W14
S5071 2016.02.02       S09W56            
12494 2016.02.03
2016.02.04
8 18 12 S12W43 040 DAI DAI

beta-gamma

S5076 2016.02.03       N16W45            
S5077 2016.02.03       S10W56          
12495 2016.02.03
2016.02.05
2 2 1 S08W88 0180 DAO HAX  
S5080 2016.02.03   4 1 N05W10 0007   BXO  
12496 2016.02.04
2016.02.05
5 23 11 N08E19 0010 BXO CRI area: 0050
S5082 2016.02.04   7 2 N13E16 0015   BXO  
12497 2016.02.05
2016.02.06
10 39 18 N13E36 0200 DAO DAI beta-gamma

area: 0270

S5085 2016.02.05       N14W37            
S5086 2016.02.05   2 1 S12E18 0010   BXO  
S5087 2016.02.05       S05W46            
S5088 2016.02.05       N23W39            
S5090 2016.02.06       S19W08            
S5091 2016.02.06   16 8 N13W21 0070   DRI beta-gamma
S5092 2016.02.07       N18W05          
S5093 2016.02.08   1 1 N19E70 0006   HRX    
S5094 2016.02.08   5 1 N18E37 0010   BXO    
S5095 2016.02.08   1   S10W18 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 32 133 63  
Sunspot number: 82 263 173  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 50 157 87  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 90 145 147 k * (sunspot number)
As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO) (4)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (cycle peak) 110.5 (+1.2) 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) 7.88
2014.12 158.7 153.8 112.9 92.2 (-2.5) 11.24
2015.01 141.9 137.3 93.0 89.3 (-2.9) 9.46
2015.02 129.1 126.0 66.7 86.1 (-3.2) 9.92
2015.03 125.9 124.6 54.5 82.2 (-3.9) 16.14
2015.04 128.8 129.7 75.3 78.8 (-3.4) 10.73
2015.05 120.0 122.6 88.8 76.0 (-2.8) 8.29
2015.06 122.3 126.1 66.5 72.0 (-4.0) 13.15
2015.07 107.0 110.8 66.4 68.2 (-3.8) 8.83
2015.08 105.4 108.0 64.6 (66.1 projected, -2.1) 14.58
2015.09 101.7 102.7 78.1 (66.1 projected, +0.0) 15.78
2015.10 104.1 103.3 61.7 (65.7 projected, -0.4) 14.02
2015.11 109.3 106.9 63.2 (63.6 projected, -2.1) 12.09
2015.12 113.1 109.5 57.7 (61.9 projected, -1.7) 14.29
2016.01 103.4 100.2 56.6 (60.2 projected, -1.7) 10.0
2016.02 113.4   21.3 (2A) / 77.1 (2B) / 83.6 (2C) (57.8 projected, -2.4) (8.2)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.