The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on March 16 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH721 during the first half of the day. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 442 and 595 km/s. A high speed stream associated with CH722 arrived near noon and caused a gradual increase in solar wind speed for the remainder of the day as well as a minor increase in the total field of the IMF and a stronger southward Bz component.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 91.0 (decreasing 3.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 101.4. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 16 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 16.3). Three hour interval K indices: 52232134 (planetary), 43333233 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 5 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 94) and 5 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 73) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12519 [N05W20] developed slowly as new
positive flux emerged to the south of the largest spot. The region has minor
polarity intermixing.
Region 12521 [N19W36] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12523 [S10W22] emerged on March 15 and was numbered the next
day by SWPC as the region began to decay.
New region 12524 [N15E77] rotated partly into view on March 15 with SWPC
numbering the region the following day. C flares are possible and maybe even a
minor M class flare.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S5192 [N12E27] emerged with a few spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.2 | 06:46 | 12522 | GOES15 | CME |
March 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A new northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH722) rotated across the central meridian on March 13-14. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH723) will likely rotate into a potentially geoeffective position on March 18-19.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on March 17 due to effects from CH722, becoming quiet to unsettled on March 18 and quiet on March 19-20. Effects from CH723 could cause unsettled and active intervals on March 21-22.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| S5169 | 2016.03.08 | S08W56 | |||||||||
| S5170 | 2016.03.08 | N12W34 | |||||||||
| 12521 |
2016.03.08 2016.03.12 |
5 | 11 | 6 | N17W37 | 0020 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N19W36 |
| 12519 | 2016.03.09 | 4 | 17 | 6 | N05W17 | 0090 | DSO | DSO |
 |
 |
area: 0140 |
| S5175 | 2016.03.10 | S05W25 | |||||||||
| 12520 |
2016.03.10 2016.03.12 |
N04W43 | |||||||||
| 12522 |
2016.03.11 2016.03.14 |
N14W85 |
 |
||||||||
| S5184 | 2016.03.12 | S14W43 | |||||||||
| S5185 | 2016.03.12 | S21W17 | |||||||||
| S5186 | 2016.03.13 | N08W24 | |||||||||
| 12523 |
2016.03.15 2016.03.16 |
3 | 6 | 4 | S10W22 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| S5189 | 2016.03.15 | S01W16 |
 |
||||||||
| 12524 |
2016.03.15 2016.03.16 |
1 | 4 | 4 | N14E69 | 0070 | HSX | EKO |
 |
 |
location: N15E77 area: 0450 |
| S5192 | 2016.03.16 | 6 | 3 | N12E27 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 13 | 44 | 23 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 53 | 94 | 73 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 26 | 68 | 47 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 58 | 42 | 58 | k * (sunspot number) As of February 19, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.45 for MSN 2K, k = 0.80 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) |
|||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) (4) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (cycle peak) | 110.5 (+1.2) | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 93.0 | 89.3 (-2.9) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 66.7 | 86.1 (-3.2) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 54.5 | 82.2 (-3.9) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 75.3 | 78.8 (-3.4) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | 120.0 | 122.6 | 88.8 | 76.0 (-2.8) | 8.29 |
| 2015.06 | 122.3 | 126.1 | 66.5 | 72.0 (-4.0) | 13.15 |
| 2015.07 | 107.0 | 110.8 | 66.4 | 68.2 (-3.8) | 8.83 |
| 2015.08 | 105.4 | 108.0 | 64.6 | 66.3 (-1.9) | 14.58 |
| 2015.09 | 101.7 | 102.7 | 78.1 | (66.0 projected, -0.3) | 15.78 |
| 2015.10 | 104.1 | 103.3 | 61.7 | (65.3 projected, -0.7) | 14.02 |
| 2015.11 | 109.3 | 106.9 | 63.2 | (63.2 projected, -2.1) | 12.09 |
| 2015.12 | 113.1 | 109.5 | 57.7 | (61.5 projected, -1.7) | 14.29 |
| 2016.01 | 103.4 | 100.1 | 56.6 | (59.8 projected, -1.7) | 9.4 |
| 2016.02 | 103.6 | 101.0 | 57.2 | (57.4 projected, -2.4) | 9.9 |
| 2016.03 | (95.5) | 29.2 (2A) / 56.6 (2B) / 65.3 (2C) | (54.5 projected, -3.1) | (10.7) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B)
Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day
average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
