Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on January 14, 2017 at 03:25 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (January 2, 2017)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-24 (January 2, 2017) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24 progress (January 2, 2017) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012
  Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (January 2, 2017) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (January 2, 2017) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (December 4, 2016)  

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was very quiet on January 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 333 and 360 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 74.9 (increasing 2.8 over the last solar rotation). The average 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 74.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.5). Three hour interval K indices: 11001111 (planetary), 12000112 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A5 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 3 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 38) and in 3 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 36) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12625 [N02E58] was quiet and stable.
New region 12626 [N08E70] rotated into view on January 12 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S5568 [N01E70] was quiet and stable.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location AR Recorded by Comment
           

 

Flare activity (SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy)

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH785) was Earth facing on January 11-12, CH785 may be too far to the north to cause any significant geomagnetic effects. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH786) will likely rotate across the central meridian on January 15-16.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 14-15 with a chance of a few unsettled intervals should effects from CH785 reach Earth, quiet conditions are likely on January 16-17. Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on January 18-20 as CH786 becomes geoeffective.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
S5560 2017.01.06       N15W59            
S5563 2017.01.09       N13E17            
12625 2017.01.11
2017.01.12
3 2 2 N03E58 0050 HSX HAX area: 0060
12626 2017.01.12
2017.01.13
1 3 2 N08E67 0020 HSX HKX bad area data from SWPC

area: 0280

location: N08E70

S5568 2017.01.12   3 2 N01E70 0010   BXO  
Total spot count: 4 8 6  
Sunspot number: 24 38 36  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 14 23 21  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 26 21 29 k * (sunspot number)
As of May 7, 2016: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.80 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO) (4)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (cycle peak) 110.5 (+1.2) 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) 7.88
2015.10 104.1 103.3 63.6 64.3 (-1.6) 14.02
2015.11 109.3 106.9 62.2 61.3 (-3.0) 12.09
2015.12 113.1 109.5 58.0 57.8 (-3.5) 14.29
2016.01 103.4 100.1 57.0 54.4 (-3.4) 9.4
2016.02 103.6 101.0 56.4 52.5 (-1.9) 9.9
2016.03 91.5 90.6 54.1 50.5 (-2.0) 10.58
2016.04 93.3 94.0 38.0 47.8 (-2.7) 9.03
2016.05 93.0 95.3 52.1 44.9 (-2.9) 11.65
2016.06 81.9 84.5 20.9 41.6 (-3.3) 8.44
2016.07 86.0 88.9 32.5 (38.3 projected, -3.3) 9.43
2016.08 85.0 87.1 50.7 (35.5 projected, -2.8) 9.61
2016.09 87.7 88.7 44.7 (32.8 projected, -2.7) 14.54
2016.10 86.1 85.6 33.6 (30.8 projected, -2.0) 15.33
2016.11 78.6 76.9 21.4 (29.0 projected, -1.8) 9.11
2016.12 75.1 72.8 18.9 (27.3 projected, -1.7) 9.34
2017.01 (73.0)   1.5 (2A) / 3.5 (2B) / 12.1 (2C) (26.6 projected, -0.7) (9.8)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.