|Charts (* = updated daily)||Data and archive|
|Solar wind (*)||Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)|
|Electron fluence (*)||Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (May 13, 2017)|
|Solar cycle||Solar cycles 23-24 (May 2, 2017)||Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)|
|Cycle 24 progress (May 2, 2017)||Noon SDO sunspot count 1K / 4K (*)|
|Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015)||POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012N06W17]|
|Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (May 2, 2017)||3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013|
|Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (May 2, 2017)||4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014|
|Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 17, 2017)|
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on May 27. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 277 and 421 km/s. A weak solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 14:27 UT. This was the arrival of a CME caused by a filament eruption that occurred near center disk and began late on May 22 and continued most of May 23. While the initial part of the disturbance was weak, the interplanetary magnetic field became much stronger after 20:30 UT and the Bz component swung very strongly southwards. This has caused minor to severe geomagnetic storming.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 81.9 (increasing 4.5 over the last solar rotation). The average 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 76.7. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 12.8). Three hour interval K indices: 10001336 (planetary), 10011436 (Boulder)
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 1 active region using 2K resolution (SN: 38) and in 1 active region using 1K resolution (SN: 26) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12659 [N13W46] gained area and developed a weak magnetic delta in the trailing spot section. C flares are possible, as is a minor M class flare.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UT)||Location||AR||Recorded by||Comment|
May 25-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or close to Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to severe storm on May 28 due to CME effects and quiet to active on May 29 becoming quiet on May 30.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
|Total spot count:||11||28||16|
|Sunspot number:||21||38||26||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||16||33||21||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||22||21||21||k * (sunspot number)
As of May 7, 2016: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.80 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number (4)||Average
|166.3||146.1 (cycle peak)||110.5 (+1.2)||10.70|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||112.5||116.4 (+2.1) (solar max)||7.88|
|2016.11||78.6||76.9||21.4||(29.9 projected, -1.5)||9.11|
|2016.12||75.1||72.8||18.9||(28.3 projected, -1.6)||9.34|
|2017.01||77.3||74.9||25.8||(27.5 projected, -0.8)||9.45|
|2017.02||76.8||75.0||26.1||(25.7 projected, -1.8)||9.58|
|2017.03||74.6||73.9||17.7||(23.1 projected, -2.6)||14.20|
|2017.04||80.3||80.8||32.6||(21.1 projected, -2.0)||11.70|
|2017.05||(73.4)||15.8 (2A) / 18.2 (2B) / 21.2 (2C)||(20.0 projected, -1.1)||(6.7)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.