Last major update issued on December 9, 2003 at 04:10 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update December 2, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update December 2, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update December 2, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update December 8, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on December 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 433 and 662 km/sec, increasingly under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH71.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 93.7. The planetary A
index was 39 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 39.1).
Three hour interval K indices: 25566544 (planetary), 25455544 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A9 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was very low.
Region 10516 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10517 decayed further with penumbra disappearing in the trailing spots.
December 7-8: No partly or fully earth directed CMEs observed.
December 6: A partial halo CME was observed early in the day following a filament eruption near region 10516. The CME was observed over the south pole, the southwest quadrant and part of the northwest quadrant.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A huge recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH71) will be in a geoeffective position on December 5-12.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on December 9. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm with occasional major and severe storm intervals until December 15 due to a strong high speed stream from coronal hole CH71.
Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is good. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight, none: Several stations were heard with occasionally good signals, this includes Radio Cristal del Uruguay, Radio Rafaela (Argentina), an unidentified Argentinean from the Buenos Aires area as well as CPN Radio (Perú). These were all on the antenna to the SW, the antenna to the west had a weak signal from WLAM Lewiston ME (and a good signal from WWZN on 1510 kHz)].
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10513||2003.11.26||1||N11W85||0090||HSX||rotated out of view|
classification was HSX
at midnight, area 0040
classification was CAO
at midnight, area 0090
|Total spot count:||19||5|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2003.06||129.3||77.4||(65.3 predicted, -2.5)|
|2003.07||127.7||85.0||(61.9 predicted, -3.4)|
|2003.08||122.1||72.7||(59.0 predicted, -2.9)|
|2003.09||112.2||48.8||(57.0 predicted, -2.0)|
|2003.10||151.7||65.6||(54.3 predicted, -2.7)|
|2003.11||140.8||67.2||(51.6 predicted, -2.7)|
|2003.12||116.1 (1)||24.8 (2)||(49.0 predicted, -2.6)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.