Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on December 30, 2003 at 04:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update December 2, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update December 2, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update December 2, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update December 17, 2003)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 29. Solar wind speed ranged between 371 and 518 km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 114.5. The planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.1).
Three hour interval K indices: 11232221 (planetary), 10122321 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was very low.

Region 10528 decayed slowly and rotated to the northwest limb.
Region 10530 reemerged with a single spot.
Region 10532 decayed and could soon become spotless.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 26-28: No partly or fully earth directed CMEs observed. Only a few new LASCO images have become available since December 28.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH73) was in a geoeffective position on December 28-29. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH74) is rotating into view at the east limb and will be in a geoeffective position from January 1.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on December 26. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled until December 31. That day and on January 1 a high speed stream from coronal hole CH73 is likely to cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor to fair. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela) with WLAM Lewiston slowly getting a better signal in the background].

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.