Last update January 6, 2003 at 03:25 UTC.
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[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2003)]
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[Archived reports (last update January 1, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 377 and 480 km/sec.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 148.1. The planetary A
index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.0).
Three hour interval K indices: 22223332 (planetary), 12212222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At midnight there were 7 spotted regions on the visible disk, 3 of which have not yet been numbered. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 3 C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10242 developed further, particularly in the trailing spot section. A minor M
class flare is possible. Flare: C1.0 at 07:58 UTC.
Region 10243 added a few trailing spots while decay was observed in the leading spots. Flare: C5.8 at 06:17 UTC.
Region 10244 did not change much and was mostly quiet. Flare: C1.3 at 11:54 UTC.
Region 10245 decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not yet numbered by SEC/NOAA:
[S66] A new region emerged to the northeast of region 10239 on January 4. The region was mostly unchanged un January 5. Location at midnight: S05W50. Unfortunately and confusingly SEC/NOAA decided to reuse region number 10240.
[S69] A new region emerged in the northeast quadrant near the central meridian late on January 5. Location at midnight: N13E01.
[S70] A new region emerged quickly in the northeast quadrant late on January 5. Location at midnight: N09E27.
January 3-5: No obviously geoeffective CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial extension of the northern polar coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on January 6-7.
Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on January 6. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 6-8 becoming quiet to active on January 9-10 due to a coronal stream. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering has been included. Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
|Solar region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
see region S66
see region S66 below
area approx. 0300
|Total spot count:||68||74|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2002.07||173.5||99.6||(102.1 predicted, -4.1)|
|2002.08||183.6||116.4||(98.5 predicted, -3.6)|
|2002.09||175.8||109.6||(95.5 predicted, -3.0)|
|2002.10||167.0||97.5||(92.0 predicted, -3.5)|
|2002.11||168.7||95.0||(86.7 predicted, -5.3)|
|2002.12||157.2||81.6||(82.4 predicted, -4.3)|
|2003.01||132.4 (1)||15.3 (2)||(79.4 predicted, -3.0)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.