Last update issued on June 6, 2003 at 06:45 UTC. Images added at 10:04 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 461 and 750 km/sec under the decreasing influence of a high speed stream from the western part of coronal hole CH42. The high speed stream from the eastern part of CH42 is dominating the solar wind early on June 6.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 113.6. The planetary A
index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 33333332 (planetary), 23323232 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.
At midnight there were 7 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 3 C class events was recorded during the day. A C2.1 long duration event peaking at 10:19 UTC had its origin behind the southeast limb.
Region 10373 decayed further and lost its leader spot.
Region 10375 developed very quickly as new flux emerged in the leading spot section. At least one magnetic delta structure is forming and the region has become capable of producing major flares.. Flare: C1.7 at 17:34 and C1.0 at 23:37 UTC.
Region 10376 decayed further and is losing its trailing spots.
Region 10377 developed slowly and quietly.
New region 10378 rotated into view at the northeast limb.
Spotted regions not yet numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S176] A new region emerged on June 5 west of region 10375. Location at midnight: N12E14.
[S177] A new region emerged on June 5 in the southwest quadrant. Location at midnight: S20W54.
June 3-5: No obviously geoeffective CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A huge recurrent coronal hole (CH42) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on May 29-June 6.
Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on June 6. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm June 6-9 due to a high speed stream from the eastern part of coronal hole CH42.
Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor and will likely stay poor to very poor until at least June 10. Propagation along north-south paths is good. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay, however, several other stations were observed, at least one of them from Argentina.]
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
|Solar region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was HSX
classification was EKC
at midnight, area 0550
classification was CSO
classification was DAO
|Total spot count:||45||67|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2002.12||157.2||80.8||(81.4 predicted, -3.8)|
|2003.01||144.0||79.5||(78.3 predicted, -3.1)|
|2003.02||124.5||46.2||(73.3 predicted, -5.0)|
|2003.03||131.4||61.5||(67.6 predicted, -5.7)|
|2003.04||126.4||60.0||(62.7 predicted, -4.9)|
|2003.05||115.7||55.2||(57.8 predicted, -4.9)|
|2003.06||113.3 (1)||11.7 (2)||(53.8 predicted, -4.0)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.