Last major update issued on December 1, 2003 at 04:45 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update November 22, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 30. Solar wind speed ranged between 365 and 544 km/sec. A very weak moderately high speed coronal stream was observed early in the day. After 09h UTC ACE data did not any longer indicate the presence of that stream and a weak disturbance (unidentified source) dominated the solar wind for the remainder of the day.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 152.8. The planetary A
index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.3).
Three hour interval K indices: 22223332 (planetary), 22213332 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
At midnight there were 10 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 4 C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10507 decayed slowly and is rotating over the northwest limb.
Region 10508 decayed very quickly and lost about three quarters of the penumbral area. The region will rotate over the southwest limb tomorrow. Flares: C1.1 at 03:00, C1.2 at 10:11 and C2.1 at 15:31 UTC.
Region 10509 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10510 decayed quietly and lost penumbra on all spots. Rudimentary penumbra is still visible on quite a few of the many small spots.
Region 10511 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10513 was quiet and stable.
Region 10515 decayed and could become spotless today.
Region 10516 developed slowly and quietly.
New region 10517 rotated into view at the southeast limb. This is currently the most interesting region on the visible disk. Further C class flaring is likely, a minor M class flare is possible. Flares: C4.6 at 000:11 UTC.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S318] A new region emerged just southeast of region 10516 on November 30. Location at midnight: S22E47.
November 28-30: No partly or fully earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH70) was in a geoeffective position on November 30 and December 1.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:05 UTC on November 30. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 1-2. On December 3-4 unsettled to major storm conditions are likely due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH70.
Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay with CPN Radio (Peru) noted at times].
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was DSO
at midnight, area 0090
classification was CAO
classification was DRI
at midnight, area 0040
classification was CSO
area was 0010
formerly region S317
classification was DAO
at midnight, area 0260
|Total spot count:||78||96|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2003.05||115.7||55.2||(66.8 predicted, -3.5)|
|2003.06||129.3||77.4||(63.0 predicted, -3.8)|
|2003.07||127.7||85.0||(59.3 predicted, -3.7)|
|2003.08||122.1||72.7||(56.3 predicted, -3.0)|
|2003.09||112.2||48.8||(54.3 predicted, -2.0)|
|2003.10||151.7||65.6||(51.6 predicted, -2.7)|
|2003.11||140.8 (1)||103.0 (2)||(48.9 predicted, -2.7)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.