Last major update issued on December 10, 2004 at 04:30 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update December 3, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update December 3, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update December 3, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update November 8, 2004)]
[Archived reports (last update December 1, 2004)]
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet on December 9, a single active interval was recorded at 09-12h UTC. Solar wind speed ranged between 372 and 433 km/sec under the influence of a coronal hole flow.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 87.4. The planetary A
index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.9).
Three hour interval K indices: 21142221 (planetary), 21143212 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A4 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 1 C class event was recorded during the day.Region 10709 lost all spots in the trailing negative polarity area while a single tiny spot emerged in the leading positive polarity area.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S487] A new region emerged in the northwest quadrant near the central meridian on December 9. While the single small spot in this region is the largest on the visible disk, the region currently does not appear to have much potential for development.
December 8: A full halo (asymmetrical) CME was observed in LASCO C2 images prior to a 24 hour period where no high speed
telemetry from SOHO was available. This CME is likely to impact Earth on December 11.
December 7 and 9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
Coronal hole CH132 in the southern hemisphere may have been in a geoeffective position on December 9-10. An extension (CH133) of the northern polar coronal hole could reach a geoeffective position on December 13.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on December 10. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 10 and quiet to major storm on December 11-12.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is fair to poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay. A few stations from North America were noted on other frequencies: 930 CJYQ, 1130 WBBR, 1510 WWZN and the Florida stations on 1660 and 1700 kHz.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
rotated out of view
very early in the day
classification was AXX
at midnight, area 0000
area was 0000
|Total spot count:||9||3|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2004.06||97.4||43.2||(42.2 predicted, -1.7)|
|2004.07||119.1||51.0||(40.6 predicted, -1.6)|
|2004.08||109.6||40.9||(39.0 predicted, -1.6)|
|2004.09||103.1||27.7||(37.1 predicted, -1.9)|
|2004.10||105.9||48.4||(34.9 predicted, -2.2)|
|2004.11||113.2||43.7||(33.0 predicted, -1.9)|
|2004.12||95.7 (1)||13.5 (2)||(30.7 predicted, -2.3)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.