Last major update issued on November 2, 2004 at 04:50 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 2, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update August 28,
2004)]
[Archived reports (last update October 30, 2004)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 349 and 432 km/sec, gradually decreasing.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 135.5. The planetary A
index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.1).
Three hour interval K indices: 21112211 (planetary), 31111322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
At midnight there were 6 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was moderate. A total of 2 C and 1 M class events was recorded during the day. Region 10687 at and just behind the northwest limb produced a C2.6 flare at 04:22 and a C2.9 flare at 07:02 UTC.
Region 10689 decayed slowly and quietly.
November 1: A faint full halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 images following an M1.1 proton event in region 10691 early in
the day. This CME could reach Earth on November 4, possibly late on November 3.
October 31: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
October 30: Despite lots of flare activity only a single full halo CME was observed in LASCO images. This halo was
observed after an M5.9 major flare in region 10691 during the afternoon. This CME could reach Earth on November 2.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28
days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH122) was in a geoeffective position on October 30-31.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 2. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on November 2 due to a CME impact and unsettled to active on November 3-4 due to effects from coronal hole CH122 and another CME impact.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to occasionally good. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME with a fair signal. On other frequencies propagation was best towards the easternmost parts of North America. There were 3 stations on 610 kHz with WIOD Miami FL dominating (as usual) and CHNC New Carlisle QC the second best signal.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10687 | 2004.10.19 | 2 | N11W92 | 0030 | BXO | ||
10689 | 2004.10.21 | 1 | 1 | N11W71 | 0020 | HAX |
classification was HSX at midnight |
10690 | 2004.10.22 | 4 | 2 | S02W54 | 0060 | CAO |
classification was HSX at midnight, area 0030 |
10691 | 2004.10.23 | 8 | 9 | N13W55 | 0140 | DAO | |
10692 | 2004.10.24 | S19W80 | plage | ||||
10693 | 2004.10.27 | 50 | 42 | S16E08 | 0780 | FKC | |
10694 | 2004.10.28 | N14W29 | plage | ||||
10695 | 2004.10.30 | 3 | 2 | S15E39 | 0070 | DSO | |
10696 | 2004.11.01 | 6 | 8 | N09E63 | 0060 | DAO | |
Total spot count: | 74 | 64 | |||||
SSN: | 144 | 124 |
Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
---|---|---|---|
2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
2003.08 | 122.1 | 72.7 | 60.0 (-1.7) |
2003.09 | 112.2 | 48.7 | 59.5 (-0.5) |
2003.10 | 151.7 | 65.5 | 58.2 (-1.3) |
2003.11 | 140.8 | 67.3 | 56.7 (-1.5) |
2003.12 | 114.9 | 46.5 | 54.8 (-1.9) |
2004.01 | 114.1 | 37.3 | 52.0 (-2.8) |
2004.02 | 107.0 | 45.8 | 49.3 (-2.7) |
2004.03 | 112.0 | 49.1 | 47.1 (-2.2) |
2004.04 | 101.2 | 39.3 | 45.5 (-1.6) |
2004.05 | 99.8 | 41.5 | (42.8 predicted, -2.7) |
2004.06 | 97.4 | 43.2 | (40.0 predicted, -2.8) |
2004.07 | 119.1 | 51.0 | (38.2 predicted, -1.8) |
2004.08 | 109.6 | 40.9 | (36.6 predicted, -1.6) |
2004.09 | 103.1 | 27.7 | (34.7 predicted, -1.9) |
2004.10 | 105.9 | 48.4 | (32.5 predicted, -2.2) |
2004.11 | 135.5 (1) | 4.8 (2) | (31.0 predicted, -1.5) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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