Last major update issued on November 28, 2004 at 05:05 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update November 8, 2004)]
[Archived reports (last update November 20, 2004)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 27. Solar wind speed ranged between 366 and 438 km/sec.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 110.3. The planetary A
index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.0).
Three hour interval K indices: 12323332 (planetary), 22323322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there were 4 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 2 C class events were recorded during the day.Region 10704 decayed quickly and had only two small spots left at midnight.
November 25-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
Large and well defined recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole CH129 was in a geoeffective position on November 26-28. This coronal hole has developed quickly over the last rotation.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 28. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 28 and most of November 29. During the latter half of November 29 a strong high speed stream from coronal hole CH129 is expected to arrive. This will cause unsettled to major storm conditions until December 1.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor to useless. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is very poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: only faint audio noted for a few minutes, otherwise nothing. On other frequencies propagation was generally extremely poor with audio only noted from Rádio Sociedade on 740 kHz.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was AXX
at midnight, area 0010
classification was CSO
at midnight. area 0090
classification was DAO
at midnight, area 0120
|Total spot count:||24||17|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2004.05||99.8||41.5||(42.8 predicted, -2.7)|
|2004.06||97.4||43.2||(40.0 predicted, -2.8)|
|2004.07||119.1||51.0||(38.2 predicted, -1.8)|
|2004.08||109.6||40.9||(36.6 predicted, -1.6)|
|2004.09||103.1||27.7||(34.7 predicted, -1.9)|
|2004.10||105.9||48.4||(32.5 predicted, -2.2)|
|2004.11||113.4 (1)||65.6 (2)||(31.0 predicted, -1.5)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.