Last major update issued on June 17, 2005 at 04:25 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
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[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 4, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 4, 2005)]
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[Archived reports (last update June 4, 2005)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on June 16. Solar wind speed ranged between 397 and 688 km/sec. A solar wind shock was observed at ACE at 08:12 UTC. This was the arrival of the full halo CME observed on June 14.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 98.1. The planetary
index was 26 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 12265443 (planetary), 22364443 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there were 4 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was moderate. A total of 2 C and 1 M class events was recorded during the day.
Region 10775 rotated out of view at the northwest limb. Flares: C1.7 at 09:05 and a long
duration M4.0 proton event peaking at 20:22 UTC. A strong type II and a weak type IV radio sweep was associated with this event.
Region 10776 added a few small spots. Flare: C1.6 at 02:02 UTC.
Region 10779 developed slowly and remained magnetically simply structured.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S560] This region emerged in the northeast quadrant on June 16. Location at midnight: N08E37.
[S561] A new region rotated into view at the southeast limb on June 16. Location at midnight: S06E76.
June 14: A full halo CME was observed in LASCO images after a long duration C4 event in region 10775 during the morning.
With no available LASCO images covering the C7 long duration event later in the day, it is uncertain if there was another full
halo CME then.
June 15-16: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO images. (LASCO images for the last 7 hours of June 16 are not available when I write this.)
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently at or near Earth facing positions.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on June 6. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 17-18 and quiet to unsettled on June 19.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is good to very good. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay and Rafaela Argentina. Many stations from Brazil (huge signals were noted from some of the higher powered stations in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Uruguay and Argentina were observed on other frequencies. 1510 kHz was very lively with a mix of Rádio Nordeste AM (Brazil), Radio Rincón (Uruguay) and Rádio Champaquí and Radio Belgrano (Argentina).
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10775||2005.06.04||2||N10W86||0130||HAX||rotated out of view|
|10779||2005.06.15||19||28||S17W05||0240||DAI||classification was DKI at midnight, area 0440|
|Total spot count:||27||36|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2004.12||94.5||17.9||(34.8 predicted, -0.5)|
|2005.01||102.2||31.3||(32.8 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.02||97.2||29.1||(30.4 predicted, -2.4)|
|2005.03||89.9||24.8||(28.8 predicted, -1.6)|
|2005.04||86.0||24.4||(26.9 predicted, -1.9)|
|2005.05||99.3||42.6||(24.3 predicted, -2.6)|
|2005.06||102.3 (1)||42.4 (2)||(22.8 predicted, -1.5)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.