Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on December 2, 2006 at 06:35 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update November 12, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on December 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 349 and 404 km/s (all day average 371 km/s - decreasing 17 km/s from the previous day).

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 84.2. The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.8). Three hour interval K indices: 01011112 (planetary), 00122121 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.

At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10926 developed during the latter half of the day and has some polarity intermixing. C flares are likely.
Region 10927 decayed significantly and lost most of its trailing spots.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 29 - December 1: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in very incomplete LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent coronal hole (CH250) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on December 3-4.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 24. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on December 2-5. A high speed stream from CH250 could cause a disturbance on December 7-8 with unsettled to major storm conditions.

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: Only a few of the most common east coast North American stations were audible during the night. The best signals were heard from stations in Venezuela (examples: 1290, 1310 kHz both with good signals at times) and Colombia (for instance 1250 Capital Radio).

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.