Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on December 25, 2006 at 05:10 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update December 18, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 24. Solar wind speed ranged between 545 and 732 km/s (all day average 601 km/s - increasing 20 km/s over the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH252.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 73.2. The planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.5). Three hour interval K indices: 32312332 (planetary), 23323332 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is far below the class A1 level.

At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S685] This region emerged with a single small spot in the southeast quadrant on December 24. Location at midnight: S08E65

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 22-24: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery. During the evening of December 24 a wide (at least partial halo) CME was observed over most of the southern hemipshere limbs and the south pole. The source of this CME was probably backsided.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A small coronal hole (CH253) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on December 24.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 20:48 UTC on December 24. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 25 due to lingering effects from CH252. Quiet conditions are likely on December 26-29, however, a few unsettled and active intervals are possible on December 27 due to effects from CH253.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor.

Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: At 05h UTC there was poor audio from the most common Canadian Atlantic provinces stations.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
S685 2006.12.24   1 S08E65 0000 AXX  
Total spot count: 0 1  
SSN: 0 11  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2005.09 91.1 21.9 25.8 (-1.6)
2005.10 77.0 8.7 25.5 (-0.3)
2005.11 86.3 18.0 24.9 (-0.6)
2005.12 90.7 41.1 23.0 (-1.9)
2006.01 83.4 15.3 20.8 (-2.2)
2006.02 76.5 4.9 18.6 (-2.2)
2006.03 75.4 10.6 17.3 (-1.3)
2006.04 89.0 30.2 17.1 (-0.2)
2006.05 80.9 22.2 17.3 (+0.2)
2006.06 76.5 13.9 (16.3 predicted, -1.0)
2006.07 75.7 12.2 (14.7 predicted, -1.6)
2006.08 79.0 12.9 (14.2 predicted, -0.5)
2006.09 77.8 14.5 (14.1 predicted, -0.1)
2006.10 74.3 10.4 (13.0 predicted, -1.1)
2006.11 86.3 21.5 (11.5 predicted, -1.5)
2006.12 86.5 (1) 18.4 (2) (11.3 predicted, -0.2)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


[DX-Listeners' Club]