Last major update issued on May 8, 2006 at 04:25 UTC.
[Solar and
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and
electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23
(last update April 1, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison
of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update April 1, 2006)]
[Graphical
comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update April 1, 2006)]
[Historical solar and
geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update
May 3, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on May 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 499 and 662 (all day average 584) km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from CH222.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 86.2. The planetary A index
was 19 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
indices: 19.3).
Three hour interval K indices: 34543223 (planetary), 34543222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A7 level.
At midnight there were 4 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10880 was quiet and stable.
Region 10881 was quiet and displayed no major changes.
Region 10882 developed many new spots. The region is currently simple
structured magnetically.
New region 10883 rotated into view on May 6 at the southeast limb and was
numbered by NOAA/SEC the next day.
May 5-7: No partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH223) in the northern hemisphere will rotate into an Earth facing position on May 8-9.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on May 6. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on May 8 due to a high speed stream from CH222. Quiet to unsettled is expected for May 9-10 while unsettled to minor storm conditions are possible on May 11-14.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Tonight Radio Cristal del Uruguay had the best signal. On other frequencies (like 890, 930, 1390 and 1430 kHz) stations from Brazil were audible at mostly weak singal levels.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10876 | 2006.04.24 | S17W81 | plage | ||||
10878 | 2006.04.26 | 1 | N12W35 | 0010 | AXX | spotless | |
10879 | 2006.05.02 | N16W60 | \ | plage | |||
10880 | 2006.05.04 | 2 | 1 | S09E22 | 0050 | HSX | |
10881 | 2006.05.05 | 5 | 3 | S10E50 | 0050 | CSO | classification was BXO at midnight, area 0020 |
10882 | 2006.05.06 | 5 | 13 | S12W32 | 0030 | CRO | classification was DAI at midnight, area 0070 |
10883 | 2006.05.07 | 1 | 4 | S04E56 | 0020 | AXX | formerly region S652 classification was CSO at midnight |
S647 | 2006.04.29 | N08W76 | plage | ||||
S650 | 2006.05.03 | S12W03 | plage | ||||
Total spot count: | 14 | 21 | |||||
SSN: | 64 | 61 |
Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
---|---|---|---|
2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
2005.02 | 97.2 | 29.2 | 33.9 (-0.7) |
2005.03 | 89.9 | 24.5 | 33.5 (-0.4) |
2005.04 | 86.0 | 24.2 | 31.6 (-1.9) |
2005.05 | 99.3 | 42.7 | 28.9 (-2.7) |
2005.06 | 93.7 | 39.3 | 28.8 (-0.1) |
2005.07 | 96.4 | 40.1 | 29.1 (+0.3) |
2005.08 | 90.5 | 36.4 | 27.4 (-1.7) |
2005.09 | 91.1 | 21.9 | 25.8 (-1.6) |
2005.10 | 77.0 | 8.5 | 25.5 (-0.3) |
2005.11 | 86.3 | 18.0 | (24.5 predicted, -1.0) |
2005.12 | 90.7 | 41.2 | (21.8 predicted, -2.7) |
2006.01 | 83.4 | 15.4 | (18.7 predicted, -3.1) |
2006.02 | 76.5 | 4.7 | (15.6 predicted, -3.1) |
2006.03 | 75.4 | 10.8 | (13.4 predicted, -2.2) |
2006.04 | 89.0 | 30.2 | (12.7 predicted, -0.7) |
2006.05 | 89.1 (1) | 13.0 (2) | (12.2 predicted, -0.5) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC)
sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
[DX-Listeners' Club] |