Last major update issued on November 20, 2006 at 05:10 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 19. Solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 461 km/s (all day average 390 km/s - increasing 20 km/s over the previous day).
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 84.9. The planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.8). Three hour interval K indices: 11111000 (planetary), 12221110 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A4 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10923 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10924 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10925 decayed and could soon become spotless.
November 17-19: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole, CH248, in the southern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on November 19-22. Only the northernmost extensions are within potentially geoeffective positions, so there is a chance the associated high speed stream will not reach Earth.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 19. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 20-21. There is a chance a high speed stream from CH248 could arrive on November 22 or 23 and cause occasional unsettled and active intervals until November 25.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: Propagation to North America was good at LSR on November 19. Stations from Newfoundland and Nova Scotia were audible before 19h UTC in the evening. Many stations from North America, primarily from the easternmost parts, were audible during the night. Some stations from Puerto Rico, Cuba and Colombia had fair to good signals at times as well.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10924||2006.11.13||2||1||S09W30||0020||CSO||classification was HSX at midnight|
|10925||2006.11.14||4||1||S09W13||0020||CSO||classification was AXX at midnight, area 0010|
|Total spot count:||8||3|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(16.8 predicted, -0.3)|
|2006.06||76.5||13.9||(15.1 predicted, -1.7)|
|2006.07||75.7||12.2||(13.2 predicted, -1.9)|
|2006.08||79.0||12.9||(12.7 predicted, -0.5)|
|2006.09||77.8||14.5||(12.6 predicted, -0.1)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(11.5 predicted, -1.1)|
|2006.11||89.8 (1)||24.0 (2)||(10.1 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.