Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on September 7, 2006 at 03:55 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update September 3, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update September 3, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update September 3, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update August 6, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on September 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 435 and 476 km/s (all day average 450 km/s - decreasing 82 km/s from the previous day).

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 84.0. The planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.1). Three hour interval K indices: 22122222 (planetary), 22132221 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A6 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10907 developed slowly and quietly.
Region 10908 was mostly unchanged and quiet.
New region 10909 emerged in the southeast quadrant on September 5 and was numbered the next day by SEC. The region developed moderately quickly on September 6.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

September 4-6: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in incomplete LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:08 UTC on August 18. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on September 7-10.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair with stations from Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and the northeastern US received at poor to fair signal strength. Some stations from Cuba and Venezuela were audible as well. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10907 2006.09.05 7 6 S13E31 0240 CSI classification was DSO at midnight, area 0050 (SEC typo?)
location: S13E29
10908 2006.09.05 1 1 S12E59 0200 HAX location: S13E57
10909 2006.09.06 15 11 S08E25 0210 CSI formerly region S674
area was 0090 at midnight (SEC typo?)
location: S09E22
Total spot count: 23 18  
SSN: 53 48  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2005.07 96.4 40.1 29.1 (+0.3)
2005.08 90.5 36.4 27.4 (-1.7)
2005.09 91.1 21.9 25.8 (-1.6)
2005.10 77.0 8.5 25.5 (-0.3)
2005.11 86.3 18.0 24.9 (-0.6)
2005.12 90.7 41.2 23.0 (-1.9)
2006.01 83.4 15.4 20.8 (-2.2)
2006.02 76.5 4.7 18.6 (-2.2)
2006.03 75.4 10.8 (17.1 predicted, -1.5)
2006.04 89.0 30.2 (16.4 predicted, -0.7)
2006.05 80.9 22.2 (15.9 predicted, -0.5)
2006.06 76.5 13.9 (14.1 predicted, -1.8)
2006.07 75.7 12.2 (12.4 predicted, -1.7)
2006.08 79.0 12.9 (11.9 predicted, -0.5)
2006.09 78.7 (1) 4.3 (2) (11.9 predicted, -0.0)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


[DX-Listeners' Club]