Last major update issued on January 3, 2007 at 05:20 UTC.
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on January 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 512 and 665 km/s (all day average 569 km/s - increasing 183 km/s over the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH254.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 90.0. The planetary A index was 19 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 19.3). Three hour interval K indices: 44245323 (planetary), 44344422 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A7 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10933 developed a few intermediate section spots and could
produce C flares.
Region 10934 decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S687] This region rotated into view at the southeast limb on January 1. It has one fairly large spot and has so far, inexplicably, failed detection by the USAF / SEC team. Location at midnight: S06E62.
December 31 - January 2: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH254) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on December 30-31.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on January 2. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 3 due to a high speed stream from CH254 and quiet to unsettled on January 4-5.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Monitoring has been temporarily suspended (as of January 1, 2007).
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10933||2006.12.30||6||8||S03E40||0290||DAO||location was S04E38 at midnight|
|10934||2006.12.31||4||2||N05E38||0040||HAX||location was N04E36 at midnight, area 0020|
|Total spot count:||10||11|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.07||75.7||12.2||(15.0 predicted, -1.3)|
|2006.08||79.0||12.9||(14.9 predicted, -0.1)|
|2006.09||77.8||14.5||(14.7 predicted, -0.2)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(13.5 predicted, -1.2)|
|2006.11||86.3||21.5||(12.1 predicted, -1.4)|
|2006.12||84.5||13.6||(11.7 predicted, -0.4)|
|2007.01||88.5 (1)||1.9 (2)||(11.9 predicted, +0.2)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.